French corporations stick to US expansion plans

Since the weekend, the political appeals have increased to large French companies to expose or at least rethink their investments in the United States. So far, however, there is little willingness to change their international expansion plans on the part of the affected corporations.

Neither the luxury goods group LVMH nor other companies such as Schneider Electric or CMA CGM have given signs to slow down their projects in the USA or even withdraw. On the contrary, some seem to be expanding their presence even further. Bernard Arnault spoke publicly for relaxation of the economic tensions, but did not question the ambitious US plans of his group. CMA CGM underlines its willingness to invest with an announced $ 20 billion project in the United States-flanked by a performance by the company boss Rodolphe Saadé on the side of Donald Trump. Schneider Electric also adheres to its industrial projects of around $ 700 million. Despite political reminders, the dynamics of French companies on the US market remains unbroken.

In the luxury sector, other big names, such as Hermès, have no intention to rethink their plans. For his part, Hermès records at the planned opening of several additional boutiques, especially in Dallas and San Diego, and at the same time increases his local production in order to meet the increasing demand. However, the group announced that it would increase its prices in the United States to compensate for the tariffs. Lacoste also continues its development and opened a new boutique on the 5th Avenue in New York on Thursday, April 10. Finally, L’Oréal opened a research and innovation center worth $ 160 million in New Jersey in February 2025. This location, which replaces the old facilities in Clark, where the company has been working for 60 years, will employ more than 600 employees.

Economic pragmatism wins over political orders

This contrast between the political line represented by Paris and the reality in the company is undoubtedly due to a pragmatic reading of the serious tendencies that today shape world trade. The macroeconomic analysis of Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, chief economist from BNP Paribas, clearly sums up a radical realignment: the United States now have an average outdoor customs of around 25 percent. “As soon as the customs policy has stabilized, one can hope that it will be lower,” said Isabelle Mateos Y Lago in a message on the BNP website, “However, it is unlikely that it will fall below 15 percent, that is, more than five times as high as at the beginning of the year and the highest level since the signing of General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (Gatt) in 1947.

In the short term, this customs policy will continue to be unstable, interrupted by bilateral negotiations, targeted exceptions and new sectoral rights. As soon as this customs architecture has stabilized, it is unlikely that it will fall below 15 percent.

A new American industrial sovereignty

In other words, the United States are to redefine their position in the global trade order and to focus on a form of targeted industrial sovereignty. The goal is twice for the Trump administration: to finance the tax cuts by increasing customs revenue and to protect itself in sectors considered strategically.

These tariff increases are not without internal effects: They have been the strongest increase in indirect taxes for decades, undermine the trust of consumers: interior and companies and brakes any possibility of flash-up flash by the US Federal Reserve. In the longer term, they will present the US companies in front of a large competitive dilemma, since the prices for their preliminary work increase compared to their foreign competitors, which could lead to permanent loss of productivity.

Worldwide infection: contraction, caution and disinflation

At the international level, the infection effects are just as strong – but not necessarily in the expected direction. For the time being, the US customs shock looks far from an inflationary effect like a deflationary factor, according to BNP. The worldwide demand shrinks, energy prices are falling and large economies reduce their investments in view of the uncertainty.

Israel has already decided to abolish its tariffs on US products instead of going into a spiral of retaliation. China, on the other hand, has taken a more radical attitude: massive punitive tariffs, combined with a “disposal strategy” – a wave of defamed finished products that are pushed into export threatens to flood the third -party markets, especially the European.

Washington, between open fracture and power pension

This environment opens up a phase of great realignment. Washington seems to be ready to give up his historical role as a guarantee of the multilateral trading system and at the same time continue to benefit from the attributes of his financial strength: unlimited access to the capital markets, dollar status, legal extraterritoriality. A form of open “cakeism”, says Isabelle Mateos Y Lago – eating his cake and keeping it, like Brexit.

Europe looking for a strategic lever

And Europe in all of this? According to the BNP, the old continent has numerous structural advantages to cushion the shock: a large internal market, a clear investment strategy (defense, energy transition, infrastructure, etc.), a predictable institutional framework and, above all, a strong weight for services – a sector in which the United States depends on the EU.

It remains to be seen whether this scope for action will be converted into a political lever – or whether the companies, if they chase their immediate interests, will not ultimately weaken the position of Europe.

The awakening of the markets: capital in motion

This strategic realignment is not only reflected in political speeches or industrial investment decisions, but also specifically in the capital movements. The latest figures published by Zonebourse on Monday, April 21, confirm a spectacular change in the preferences of the investor: inside. European equity funds attracted more than $ 11 billion net in a week, while US funds recorded drainage of more than $ 10 billion. At the same time, the currents also increased to Asia, which took up almost $ 3.6 billion in net runs in the same period.

The imposition of high tariffs by the United States triggered a coating at the beginning of the month, especially in Europe, but the announcement of a 90-day moratorium for retaliation seems to have calmed down the markets and partially recovery. In this volatile environment, investors flee from the traditionally strong sectors – health, technology – and withdraw massively into short -term and low -risk vehicles. Global bond funds recorded so net drains of almost $ 20 billion. Only short-term US bonds could assert themselves with more than $ 7 billion in net inflows, which is a sign of a pure security demand.

A Europe on the crossroads of the blocks

This financial realignment immediately reveals what BNP Paribas and other economists already suspected: Europe could emerge from a world, which has become more fragmented, but also in its block logic, if it plays its cards correctly. The companies have already started to adapt. The financial markets are in the process of equal to them.