In view of the aggressive customs policy of US President Donald Trump, the international monetary fund expects global growth and also reduces the forecast for Germany.
The fund, based in Washington, is based on the Federal Republic of zero growth this year, as can be seen from the data of the new economic forecast. That is 0.3 percentage points less than in January.
The IMF has also reduced its prediction for the global economy. It should grow significantly slower at 2.8 percent than forecast in January (minus 0.5 percentage points). The global economy is put to a “hard trial”, writes IMF chief host Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas with a view to the trade disputes. It is a “new era”, the global economic system will be adjusted.
So the IMF looks at Germany and the euro area
The German economy is in a long phase of weakness. Germany sees the central forecast of the IMF again this year as the bottom of the G7 industries. While the IMF forecast Germany certifies this year, leading German economic research institutes forecast a mini growth of 0.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The executive federal government wants to reduce its economic forecast again and also expects stagnation for this year.
The IMF is only more optimistic for the coming year: it then expects growth of 0.9 percent – but that is still 0.2 percentage points less than forecast in January.
Economic growth in the euro area is expected to drop 0.2 percentage points to 0.8 percent compared to the January forecast. The IMF mainly mentions uncertainty and tariffs. In 2026, growth in the euro area is said to be 1.2 percent (minus 0.2 percentage points). Accordingly, the upswing caused increasing consumption through real wage growth and more financial policy scope in Germany with a view to the relaxation of the debt brake.
A forecast in an extraordinary situation
The IMF emphasizes that the global economic forecast was created under “special circumstances”. The background is the violent customs package that Trump announced on April 2 and provides for both universal and now temporarily exposed mutual tariffs. The forecasts almost concluded at this point should have been thrown overboard, according to the fund. “Although many of the planned customs increases were initially put on hold, the combination of measures and countermeasures has driven customs duties in the United States and worldwide to a century high.”
The global economy has proven to be astonishingly resistant during the severe shocks of the past four years and is still carrying considerable scars of it. Now there is a risk that the trade voltages will increase from retaliatory measures, and inflation could also be heated again. The uncertainty contains growth. In view of the complex situation, the fund presented two further predictions in addition to its central prediction, the so -called reference forecast.
Several forecasts for customs uncertainty
The reference forecast takes into account all customs announcements by April 4. According to this, the global economy will grow by 2.8 percent this year and 3 percent in the coming year (minus 0.3 percentage points). In 2024, growth was still 3.3 percent. A forecast that only takes customary announcements by March 12th- including a first wave of US criminal measures against China, Canada and Mexico or US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports- sees growth in this and in the coming year at 3.2 percent.
A model -based forecast, which also takes a look at customs announcements after April 4, as the break on mutual tariffs, sees global economic growth this year at around 2.8 percent and around 2.9 percent for 2026. This corresponds roughly to the estimates for global growth in the reference forecast, albeit with a different composition of the growth rates in the individual countries, the report. None of the forecasts predicts a recession. The individual country forecasts relate to the reference forecast.
So the IMF looks at individual countries:
1st USA: The fund has significantly corrected the forecast for the largest economy in the world. This year, GDP is expected to grow by 1.8 percent (minus 0.9 percentage points), in the coming up by 1.7 (minus 0.4 percentage points). “The downward correction is the result of greater political uncertainty, trade tensions and a weaker demand from the point of demand in view of a slower than expected consumption growth,” said the IMF. At the beginning of the year, the mood among consumers, companies and investors was still optimistic, which changed.
2. China: The IMF requires correction needs even with the second largest economy in the world. China’s economy should grow by 4 percent in this and next year (minus 0.6 percentage points/minus 0.5 percentage points). In addition to the weakness of the real estate sector, China’s economy is heavily burdened by the trade dispute with the USA, according to the IMF.
3. Russia: There, growth loses dynamics compared to last year. For this year the IMF predicts 1.5 percent (plus 0.1 percentage points), in 2026 it should be 0.9 percent (minus 0.3 percentage points). The fund cites the reasons that private consumption and investments decrease. Wage growth slow down.
That worries the IMF
The IMF looks at trade policy with great concern. A tightening of the trade conflict would have a negative impact on the growth of the global economy, although individual countries would be affected differently. “Those to which the new tariffs aim directly would be affected, especially China and the United States, but also a large number of countries in Asia and Europe in the medium term,” said the IMF.
Unlike in the last century, the global economy is now economically and financially intertwined. A dissolution of these supply chains and financial flows can result in great economic faults. The reduction in competition also means that there is fewer incentives for innovation. In general, due to the tariffs, the fund calculates with a decline in overall productivity, which in turn leads to higher production costs and prices.
The fund also corrected its prediction for the inflation rate. In the industrialized nations, it is expected to be 2.5 percent (plus 0.4 percentage points) in 2025 and 2.2 percent (plus 0.2 percentage points) next year. Central banks usually strive for 2 percent. With regard to the economy, the fund states: “If the countries de -escalate their current customs policy and coordinate in order to ensure clarity and stability in trading policy, the prospects could brighten up immediately.”
Washington (dpa-Afx)