Trump, after expressing his will to acquire the rare earths and Kiev’s critical raw materials, could turn attention to the Ukrainian oil and gas resources. Which scenario could outline themselves
On the European continent, Kiev is one of the countries with the greatest concentrations of fossil sources: coal, natural gas, shale gas and oil. The Trump presidency could relaunch the exploitation of the Ukrainian deposits launched in recent years by the companies Chevron and Exxonmobil, then abandoned by both companies following growing instability internal to Ukraine. This hypothesis is made by a study published by Global Witness (non -governmental organization founded in 1993), according to which the United States, based on the agreement on minerals with Kiev, could confiscate 353 billion dollars of proceeds from oil and Ukrainian gas. An overview of the availability of natural gas can therefore be useful, shale gas (i.e. natural gas extracted from mainly clay rocks through hydraulic crushing processes, editor’s note) and Ukrainian oil, in addition to the work of the American companies in Ukraine.
Gas and shale gas
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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, International Energy Agency), Ukraine is one of the countries with the highest concentrations of natural gas (with an estimated amount of approximately 5.4 trillions of cubic meters (TCM) and ascertained reserves (of about 1.1 TCM) and of shale gas, quantified in about 1.2 trillion cubic meters. Referring to natural gas, the major reserves are located in three areas of Ukraine:
- DNIEPR-PONETSK Basin (Eastern Ukraine), the most prolific region, containing about 80% of the reserves ascertained of Ukrainian natural gas;
- Carpathian region (Western Ukraine), holds about 13% of the reserves ascertained and contributes for about 6% to national production;
- Black Sea platform (Southern Ukraine), contains the remaining 6% of the ascertained reserves of Ukrainian gas.
Regarding the Ukrainian gas shale, the AIA data report that it is mostly present in Lublin basin (located in the western region of Ukraine) and in the region of Dniepr-pionetsk (Eastern Ukraine), considered of primary importance for the production of oil, gas and coal.
Petrolium
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In 2016, the confirmed reserves of Ukraine crude oil were estimated at approximately 395 million barrels of oilplacing Kiev in 51st place in the ranking of global crude producers; Also, it US Geological Survey (USGS, American government agency that studies the territory, resources and connected problems) has estimated a concentration of Ukrainian crude oil in four main areas: Dniepr-donetswhere the presence of about 1.6 billion barrels of oil was ascertained, to which a 2010 detection of the USGS added an additional 84 million barrels not yet discovered, but technically recoverable. In the area of Pripyatthe USGS estimated the existence of about 39 million barrels of crude oil, while for the territory Azov-Kuban The American geological service hypothesized the existence of 218 million BBL. Finally, the fourth area identified by the USGS is the Black Seawhere in 2023 he defined the presence of oil reserves not yet discovered equal to 2.3 billion barrels. In the last decade, Ukraine raw oil production has undergone a constant drop. According to the International Energy Agency (AIE), in 2018 Ukraine produced about 2.3 million tons of crude oil, equal to about 46 thousand barrels per day (KB/D), while to date the extraction activities are modest.
US interests
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In recent years, the American companies Chevron and Exxonmobil have expressed their respective interests for the exploitation of the oil and Ukrainian petroleum reserves. In 2013 Reuters reported the conclusion of an agreement between Chevron and the Ukrainian executive of the time on the sharing of the production of scholarship for a period of 50 years and a value of across 10 billion dollarsincluding two clauses. The first provided for an initial investment of the American company of approx 350 million dollars in the Oleska (Western Ukraine) deposit in order to understand its actual commercial value. Instead, the second clause imposed on Chevron the transfer of 30% of the gas extracted from Oleska to Kiev. In 2014, despite the two contractual clauses, Chevron unilaterally decided to withdraw their means and staff from the mine, worried about the growing internal destabilization of Ukraine. Exxonmobil, Unlike Chevron, it focused on oil and offshore gas reserves in the Black Sea, concluding in 2012 together with Kiev and Royal Dutch Shell an agreement for the exploitation of the Skifska gas deposit, with a reserve between 200 and 250 billion cubic meters of gas. The project, according to Reuters, provided for an estimated cost by Kiev of 10-12 billion dollarsplacing himself as one of the main assets for Ukrainian energy policy.
Trump’s possible design
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Donald Trump, after the policy of the duties towards Europe and the expected signature of Zelensky of the agreement on the concession of the Ukrainian critical raw materials on the USA, could support new projects of the US energy companies in Ukraine, always according to the hypothesis made by the study of Global Witness. This eventuality would allow Chevron and Exxonmobil to access (at advantageous prices) to the fossil reserves of Kiev, at the expense of possible European investments in the Ukrainian Gasiero sector.
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