Cristina Kirchner walks through a thin edge. It is not just the boundary between his freedom and a house prison. It is the edge between the final withdrawal and the last attempt to preserve power. A territory where politics is contaminated with judicial causes, and electoral decisions cross with the concrete possibility of ending behind bars. In 2025, the former president remains the main name of Peronism, but with the difference that what was previously a computer factor, today is the main obstacle to renewal.
Justice. The road cause is the anchor that Cristina fails to cut. Sentence to six years in prison and perpetual disqualification to exercise public office, his legal team filed a complaint with the Supreme Court. The appeal could sleep years in a drawer of the Court Palace or resolve fulminantly if the judges want. The possibility of confirming the conviction is latent. If that happens, Cristina could receive a domiciliary prison sentence for her age, with an electronic anklet included. A demolishing blow for his public figure, but not necessarily for his political base.
Carlos Beraldi, his lawyer, repeated to each microphone that he could that the process was a legal parody. He listed procedural failures, absent expert opinions, promiscuous links between prosecutors and judges, and the controversial appointment in the commission of the Court of Manuel García Mansilla by presidential decree. In Peronism they see something else: a condemnation that not only seeks punishment, but also proscription. Because if the Court rejects its appeal, the previous resolution would be firm to condemn it and in that way Cristina would immediately be disabled to appear at any position. Unless you do before August 17: just registering as a candidate, I would get fueros.
While the ruling does not arrive, Cristina plays waiting. But he also plays something else: the deaf threat to return.
CABA In some sectors of Kirchnerism, a sneakers circulate since last year: that Cristina Kirchner runs as a senator through the city of Buenos Aires. Now, that option was tied to the performance that Leandro Santoro may have in the Buenos Aires elections. If you achieve a good performance, Cristina could try to get a bench in a district that was always elusive, but that, in front of the division of the PRO and the libertarians, opens a window of opportunity to enter the Senate. Senaduría would allow him not only to obtain fueros, but also to assume an active role in the parliamentary opposition to the government of Javier Milei. It would be a way to reintegrate on the national scene without depending on Buenos Aires, and at the same time, a pressure letter for all Peronism.
Province. In recent weeks, the other laboratory hypothesis that was discussed is the possibility of running as a provincial deputy for the third electoral section. Not by legislative nostalgia, but because the movement would make a double meaning: show that it remains active in the deep conurbano and, incidentally, mark the court to Axel Kicillof.
The third is Bastion K. There, Cristina retains her hard core. If Kicillof decides to unfold the provincial elections of nationals, as analyzed, CFK’s candidacy would be a way of anchoring the device. And also, to press it so that it does not take too much.
In that chess game, Cristina does not look for a mate check. He wants a threat flavor draw. Remind the governor that she is still the boss.
Kicillof for a long time has built his power outside the former president. He already reaped the support of 42 mayors, put together a map of his own management and added names that do not respond to La Cámpora. He doesn’t say he is the heir, but he moves as such. That position is the one that most bothers Cristina.
Internal Cristina and Axel have no background ideological differences. They share the use manual K: present state, social justice, national industry. What they do not share is Marshal’s cane. In the halls of the PJ nobody means out loud, but they all think about it: CFK no longer orders. And Axel still can’t. The discussion is not “what country we want”, but “who commands here.”
And while the internal is cooking over low heat, society is in another frequency. A recent Focus Group of the Analía del Franco consultancy made it clear: the Sub 40 voters of Massa and Milei share a common sense that breaks the PJ. They value democracy, but do not associate it with well -being. They want freedom, but without welfare. They reject the plans because they see them “as a prize for laziness.” They ask for security as part of social justice. They are post-peronists without knowing it. And traditional Peronism does not understand them.
Centrality Although he does not speak, Cristina is in the center of the ring. The media name it, exhibit it, discuss it. From C5N to LN+, its figure generates rating, clicks and anger. The media strategy seems clear: to return it to the stage to stir polarization. Because Cristina is a wild card. It serves as a threat or as a shield.
Even the Milei government uses it to cover storms. When the dollar or the IMF goes up, Cristina appears. The old bread and circus trick: prices for the clouds, but talk about the former president. At least they perceive it at the Patria Institute. Milei summarized it without a filter: “Cristina goes prey.” It doesn’t matter if it is legal, fair or constitutional. The effect matters.
The road cause exceeds Cristina. It is a period postal: a democracy that prosecutes policy and a judicial system colonized by cross operations. If the Court confirms the conviction, not only a leader falls. A paradigm falls. Beraldi himself already anticipated that they will go to international courts. And if they get a favorable failure, the conviction could be reviewed nationwide. It is a race against the electoral calendar. Because everything is crossed by the urgency of 2025. Cristina can be a candidate, prey and both at the same time.
Peronism walks in circles. Debate names, not ideas. And entrenched in an intern between a leader who resists letting go and a governor who is not encouraged to lead.
