The number five is currently playing a very important role for second division soccer team Eintracht Braunschweig: five games without a win in a row, a measly five goals this season and a meager five points in the account – that means the “Lions” are currently in 17th place. What needs to change shows our data analysis.
“Football is not always fair,” is a sentence that comes out of your mouth when frustration threatens to turn into resignation. In this case, Eintracht Braunschweig’s striker Kaan Caliskaner said it after Lower Saxony’s recent 0-1 defeat at Hansa Rostock – the fifth this season after only eight games.
But the 23-year-old then caught himself rhetorically and added: “It was a decent performance. We have to build on it, it’s still early in the season and we still have enough games ahead of us.” Or to put it another way: Nobody has been relegated after eight match days. This is as correct as it is deceptive, because the problems in the blue-yellow game are ongoing.
Offensive is Eintracht’s biggest construction site
The biggest construction site for the second-to-last team in the table is the offensive. However, just looking at the meager goal tally is not enough, as the GSN data shows. According to the expected goals (1.13 per game), Eintracht would even be last compared to other teams. The “Lions” have the fewest shots on the opponent’s goal in the league, the fewest possessions in the opponent’s box and the worst rate when it comes to dribbling in the final third. In other words: Braunschweig often plays discouraged offensively.
The “Expected goals” model
“Expected goals” are “expected goals” and are calculated using a data model that takes into account a variety of factors – including where on the pitch the goal was scored, what the angle was to the goal and how many opponents were still between the ball and the goal Gate stood. Each scoring opportunity is given a value between 0 and 1 to determine the probability of the ball landing in the goal from that point. “Expected goals” values are more meaningful than the normal goalscoring statistics, which treat all shots equally. GSN evaluated more than 3 million goals for the calculation.
Ujah so far Braunschweig Life insurance
The loss of striker Anthony Ujah, who will not be available to Braunschweig until the winter break due to a shoulder injury, further exacerbates the problem with scoring goals. The Nigerian has been Lower Saxony’s life insurance so far: he scored three of the five goals and was involved in all of the attacks that resulted in a goal. Statistically, Ujah’s probability of scoring per shot is 18.42 percent, Eintracht Braunschweig’s probability of scoring without the 32-year-old is just 8.50 percent.
Was the switch from Schiele to Härtel a mistake?
Given the tense situation, the question arises as to whether the change in the coaching bench from Michael Schiele to Jens Härtel was necessary. As the data shows, little has changed in the Lions’ game: Härtel prefers the 3-4-1-2 playing system, just like Schiele did last season. Both switched to 4-2-3-1 depending on the situation, and in some cases also to 3-5-2.
And statistically, the playing styles of both coaches are almost the same. They actually only differed significantly when it came to their goals and expected goals values and those of their opponents. The blue and yellow are currently scoring 0.63 goals per game, whereas under Schiele it was 1.24 at that point in the season. The Lions have also deteriorated in terms of expected goals (1.34 to 1.70).
Defensively, however, there has been an improvement: under Härtel, the Braunschweig team conceded 1.50 goals per game, while under Schiele it was 1.74. The twelve goals conceded so far are league average, which remains a pattern of no value in the long term without our own goals.
Difficult home task against Paderborn
Today (1:30 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter) a challenging home task awaits the Lower Saxony team: SC Paderborn arrives with a balanced record of three wins, two draws and three defeats. With eleven goals, the East Westphalia team scored more than twice as many as the hosts, although they also conceded two more goals, conceding 14. The SCP wants to establish a connection to the upper table region, the BTSV is hoping for a breakthrough in the table cellar – and for an end to its negative series.
This topic in the program:
Sports club | Oct 8, 2023 | 10:50 p.m
