“If Ukraine and Russia now reach a compromise peace, the atrocities will repeat themselves. Georgia in 2007, Crimea in 2014, Ukraine in 2022. Who will be next?’, says Kersti Kaljulaid (52), former president of Estonia, in the Estonian embassy in The Hague.
With the US Congressional elections of November 8 in sight, calls for peace negotiations are mounting. Trump-promoting Republican candidates believe that Ukraine should, if necessary, give up part of its territory in exchange for peace. Left-wing Democrats also called for negotiations this week in a letter to President Biden. The letter was withdrawn after criticism from their own party, but raises the question of how sustainable the unconditional US support for Ukraine is. Vladimir Putin also insisted in a four-hour speech on Thursday: he would like to sit down with the Ukrainians.
Kaljulaid: ‘In the areas that Ukraine has recaptured, people have been murdered, raped and deported. That’s like what happened in my own country in the 1950s, in all the countries behind the Iron Curtain. You cannot ask Ukraine to murder, rape and deport part of its population.’
Can the war only end in a total victory for Ukraine?
The problem is that Russia has never come to terms with its past, as Germany did after 1945. If Russia had faced in 1991 what the Soviet Union has done to its own people and other peoples, things might have turned out differently. But Russian schools do not teach about the crimes of the Soviet Union, about the suppression of the uprisings in Prague and Budapest. That is why Russia will not change unless it clearly admits what has happened.”
Kersti Kaljulaid was president of Estonia between 2016 and 2021. She is mentioned as a possible successor to Jens Stoltenberg as secretary general of NATO. “If the member states want it, I’m ready to serve, but Stoltenberg is doing a fantastic job,” she says.
Kaljulaid speaks in short sentences that tolerate little contradiction, with the armored conviction of someone who has experienced more world history than she likes. During the Soviet occupation of Estonia (1940-1991), her grandfather had to flee from the Russians. Her grandmother was arrested on the street in Tallinn in 1947 and deported to Siberia for nine years.
Such experiences make Estonians one of the biggest hawks in the European Union. Their moral authority has increased: While Germany believed Russia could change through trade and France sought in vain dialogue with Putin, the Baltic countries warned that Putin only understands the language of power. There is only one answer to the Russian aggression: don’t be afraid and hit back hard.
Many Europeans fear that Putin will deploy a nuclear weapon if you corner him.
“That’s what he wants to scare us, by pretending to be an incalculable madman. We cannot predict what he will do, but we know one thing for sure: if Putin feels we are afraid, he will use this tactic more often.’
Will the people of Europe continue to support the war as life becomes more and more expensive?
‘That requires political leadership. Politicians should tell their citizens: a difficult winter will come, maybe more difficult winters could come, but rest assured that the economy will adjust. Countries such as Estonia proved in the 1990s that an economy can change by moving from communism to capitalism in a short time.’
Like other Baltic politicians, Kaljulaid has little sympathy for Russians fleeing mobilization in their own country. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas recently said that Putin is using the migrants as a weapon. They settle in regions where a sizeable Russian minority already lives, after which Putin can set himself up as the ‘liberator’, as he did earlier in eastern Ukraine.
Kaljulaid: ‘I don’t want to speculate about Putin’s motives. But according to United Nations criteria, avoiding mobilization is not a sufficient reason to seek asylum. End of story.’
Will Ukraine not be helped if potential Russian soldiers flee to the West?
“There are other ways to help Ukraine. The Russian people must take their fate into their own hands. You cannot change the direction of a country by going abroad. You have to change it from within. There is no other way to escape a horrific regime.’
Protesting in Russia is dangerous.
‘I protested myself at the end of the Soviet era. In 2014, Ukrainians demonstrated in Kyiv’s Maidan Square forcing a pro-Russian president to flee. You can’t tell me you can’t revolt against the Russian rulers.’
But you protested when the Soviet Union was on its last legs.
‘No! The final phase was just starting then. Gorbachev had had protesters killed in Georgia, and continued to do so in Latvia and Lithuania. We were lucky that there were no deaths in Estonia.’