15 out of 20 clubs from the west and southwest. Good job, DFB.
This relegation urgently needs to be abolished.
You’re trying to point out an injustice by simply wanting to show a part of the country with just under 15% of the population as underrepresented, even though it is actually overrepresented there with 16.7% of the clubs in the first two leagues (Berlin is not divided up like it used to be, this way of thinking is just far too old for me). But yes, complaining even though you haven’t gotten it in the playoffs for years.
Of course the relegation is a problem, but this comment is just rubbish and the DFB can’t help it that the RL NordOst always loses there. However, it should be pointed out that in League 3, due to the failure in relegation and the general mode, things are currently rather poor for NordOst teams, those who have managed to establish themselves structurally and were able to escape the 3rd league. So everything is no different than in other parts of the country.
But yes, DFB please do something, especially because what percentage of championship titles always go to the south? 🤪
What you are doing is cherry picking mixed with false data.
First of all, the new federal states including Berlin (that’s where NOFV comes from) have a population share of 19.3%, not just 15%.
Then you distort to the maximum so that it fits into your narrative, only the first two leagues, and then only the completely new snapshot. But the first three leagues are part of the overall picture, especially since it’s about unfair access to the 3rd league (!).
But let’s sensibly evaluate the NOFV representatives in the top 3 leagues:
25/26
1. Bundesliga 2/18 (Leipzig, Union) –> 11.11%
2. Bundesliga 3/18 (Hertha, Magdeburg, Dresden) –> 16.67%
3rd League 3/20 (Hansa, Cottbus, Aue) –> 15%
—-> 8/56 teams –> 14.29%
26/27
1. Bundesliga 2/18 (Leipzig, Union) –> 11.11%
2. Bundesliga 4/18 (Hertha, Magdeburg, Dresden Cottbus) –> 22.22%
3rd League 1/20 (Hansa) –> 5%
—-> 7/56 teams –> 12.5%
Quite apart from the fact that the distribution based solely on the West’s demographic advantages is already unfair, the distribution doesn’t even adhere to this.
Access to the top 3 leagues is only possible via the four promotion places from the regional leagues.
And even if you see relegation as a coin toss, i.e. assuming an average of 0.5 promoted teams over many years, then the bottom line is that the NOFV receives 0.67 promoted teams per year, while the rest provide 3.33 promoted teams. So 1/6 roughly 16.66% goes to the NOFV.
If you calculate this over hundreds of years in a simulation and assume that all 56 teams from the top 3 leagues have the same chance of being relegated and every relegation is a coin toss (which is of course greatly simplified and presents the situation for the NOFV team more beautifully than it actually is, because Union does not have the same chance of being relegated to the regional league as Bayern or Dortmund), then the distribution is of course completely equal to the access key. So it would then be expected that the NOFV would only represent 1/6 or 16.67% of the teams in the leagues, which would correspond to 9.3 teams on average.
So to give you an overview, there are a total of 56 teams in the top 3 leagues.
The NOFV would therefore have to:
– based on population share of 19.3% –> 10.8 teams
– according to the current relegation key 16.67% –> 9.2 teams
The NOFV actually provides
– in the 25/26 season only 14.23% –> 8 teams
– in the 26/27 season only 12.5% –> 7 teams
So next season there will only be 7 teams, which is almost 4 teams below the population share.
The fact that the NOFV teams have performed poorly recently in the relegation could also be due to the fact that the pressure, the expectations and what is at stake (what you have to lose) is incomparably greater there.
I’ll go out on a limb and say that Lok Leipzig was stronger than Havelse last season and wouldn’t have been relegated so clearly in the 3rd league this season.
Nevertheless, Havelse won the relegation.
Relegation is always a question of good luck or bad luck and, as I said, rarely do both teams approach it with the same backpack and the same expectations.
Either way, it’s time for the compass model to come and be implemented as quickly as possible. This should settle most of the discussions for now.
