The criteria for deciding who qualifies for the next phase both for the first two places and to enter the repechage
It is the first time in a World Cup with 48 teams and 32 will enter the direct elimination phase, which will open with the round of 32 on Sunday 28 June at 9pm Italian time with the first of eight matches. The top two from each of the 12 groups and the eight best third-placed teams will qualify. But what happens in case of a tie? Here are the criteria for compiling the separate ranking.
criteria
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In the event of an equal number of points in a group of two or more teams, the ranking will be determined by: A) Points in direct comparisons. B) Goal difference in head-to-head matches. C) Greater number of goals scored in direct matches. In the event that the tie persists, the same criteria would be applied to the still tied teams. In case of further parity, the following would be evaluated: D) Total goal difference in the group. E) Number of goals scored in the group. F) Disciplinary classification. G) FIFA Rankings.
How the best thirds are decided
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The 8 best thirds will be decided based on: A) Points obtained in the group. B) Goal difference in the group. C) Number of goals scored in the group. D) Disciplinary classification. E) FIFA Rankings.
How many points will be needed?
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According to various simulations and according to precedents with similar formats, five points should be enough to qualify for the round of 32: even with four points, qualification remains highly probable even if not guaranteed, as demonstrated by the eliminations of Norway in the 1994 World Cup and Ukraine in the 2024 European Championships. Three points are enough in around 65% of cases, while there are very few chances to qualify with two points, equal to around 5%.
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