Women’s European Championship: Why Spain is favorite – and Germany can still hope

The European Football Championship of women starts in Switzerland on July 2. The DFB women are not top favorite, but they still pay opportunities for the title – according to the data. Problems could cause you group opponents Sweden of all people.

Self -confidence has grown significantly shortly before the start of the tournament, no question. The clear 4: 0 against the Netherlands and the 6-0 over Austria in the two final Nation League games has made faith in their own strength in the DFB women’s camp again.

“I think we are seen by the English, Spaniards, French women as a favorite – and that’s exactly how we want to go into the games”said national coach Christian Wück at the presentation of the 23 player. And DFB sports director Nia Künzer showed “Convinced that we will play a successful European Championship with this squad. I start the tournament with the target picture title.”

Spain top favorite, Germany and France behind it

The hope of it is also shown by analyzes of the Global Soccer Networks (GSN)quite justified – even if Germany is not the top favorite. In a fictional cross -comparison of seven teams – in addition to the DFB women, Spain, England, France, the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy – the Spanish world champions have the highest probability of victory with almost 15.7 percent.

This is followed by the Wück team (almost 14 percent) and France (almost 13.3 percent) – still ahead of the European champions from England (12.8 percent).

Spain – Tomé still has the world champion further developed

The calculation may be fictional, with an EM it always depends on the respective path through the tournament. But the analyzes of individual class and team also show Spain as the strongest team. The team of national coach Montse Tomé is therefore primarily superior to everyone else in three aspects of the game: “Room game, structure and high technical cleanliness”.

After the 2023 World Cup title, the 43-year-old took over the team that has since “Not only as technically outstanding, but also presented as tactically developed” has. Besides almost already “Classic” Characteristics of Spanish football like “Dominance in the center, controlled ball circulation and high pressing -resistant structure” Was under Tomé “The defensive organization of more structured”.

Even if there is still improvement potential in the coverage, there is no question: If the Spaniards call their potential, the title leads over them.

Germany – Wück places system over individual class

In the DFB selection, national coach Wück did not only make it clear with the EM squad that he does not nominate the most famous players, but those who best fit into the 4-2-3-1 formation he specified. In other words: System suitability before class. For the GSN analysts, Germany is among the 52-year-old “No team of the stars – but a team of roles”.

The German contingent has this clear division of roles for many other teams. According to the GSN analysis, this could be an advantage, especially against system-open opponents such as France or the Netherlands (and showed itself against the Dutch in the Nations League).

Against structured teams such as England or compact such as Sweden, which force the team into static phases, the Wück selection could get difficulties – including because the team “No intuitive creative players” has.

France – technical quality and physical presence

The French women attest the GSN data a good development: “Less because of the brilliance of a single game principle, but because the team of coach Laurent Bonadéi has found an exciting balance: between individual class, physical dominance and tactical structure”.

A plus that the “Équipe tricolore” From the analyst’s point of view, the team combines technical quality with physical presence – “A factor that can be particularly decisive against compact opponents or in intensive co-plays”.

England – solid core supplemented by dynamics

For the GSN analysts, it is clear: England can also have legitimate hopes for the title. The team has coach Sarina Wiegman after the European Championship title 2022 and the 2023 World Cup final in 2023 “A strategically consolidated core that is now supplemented by young, dynamic players”.

The strength is not based on this “Brilliant single players”but results from the “Tactical coherence, strategic clarity and experience at the highest level”. Wiegman’s team does not play particularly spectacular, but highly functional: “Compact, targeted, with clear principles”.

Netherlands – a team in consolidation

From the point of view of the GSN analysts, the Netherlands are currently not a real title candidate. The team is under coach Andries Jonker “In a phase of consolidation”. The European champions from 2017 “Play systemic, structured, physically robust – but with a clear focus on stability instead of an offensive urge at all costs”.

The “list of defects” is likely to be too long compared to the other top nations to land again: “There is a lack of unpredictability, at the center of creative moments, in the last third of surprise moments”. In addition, according to the interpretation of the data, “Do your pressing mechanisms seem less coordinated”the team is particularly vulnerable to dominant opponents.

Sweden – automatisms, experience, quality

Sweden, the third group opponent of the German team (9 p.m.) on July 12th, is one of the for the GSN experts this year “serious title candidate”. The assessment is based primarily on the skills of the team of coach Peter Gerhardsson, “Organized, robust, counter -strong“To play, but also to be able to raise structured ball possession phases.

Two other plus points: The team has been largely unchanged since the 2023 World Cup and can rely on automatisms. They also pairs “Experience with quality, especially in key positions such as central defense, central midfield axis and attack”.

Italy can become a stumbling block, Switzerland is rather not

Italy is, although in its first first and upturn in its first and at the club level with local series A, the data according to “Not an obvious title favorite”. Nevertheless, the team, “the tactically clear, physically present and mentally strengthened”, should not be underestimated, as they can surprise opponents from their defensive basic order with quick switchover game.

To defeat the team of coach Andrea Soncin, you need “Patience and accuracy” – For those who don’t bring that, the “Squadra Azzurra” become a stumbling block.

The GSN experts only trust the hosts from Switzerland under very favorable conditions. The team of trainer Pia Sundhage belongs for them “Neither with regard to squad quality nor on the offensive variance” To the top teams. Only over “Team unity, tactical discipline and a cheap momentum” the team could surprise.