Was it a short green dream? Since Donald – drill, baby, drill – Trump won the presidential election, the support for ambitious climate policy also appears to be purchasing elsewhere in the world. Investors are withdrawing, European governments are taking a different tone. No government goes as far as Trump, who even takes steps back: he wants to burn more fossil energy, scrap climate policy and freeze permits for wind farms at sea. But in all kinds of places, financial interests seem to be more often gaining from combating climate change.
So do we stand still now? Do we fall back to a fossil time? Or is it not going so fast because the movement towards climate -friendly energy is already irreversible? After all, renewable energy sources have become surprisingly quickly much cheaper. Wind farms in the North Sea have not needed a subsidy for years. Solar panels, batteries and windmills became more powerful and fell into price. Time and again scientists underestimate the speed with which citizens and companies installed solar panels. It released optimism: renewable energy was so attractive that it would almost automatically replace fossil energy. There was economic momentum.
Now that the political energy is seeping away, the question is whether we have already reached that tipping point. Are ‘sun’ and ‘wind’ so attractive that they can defeat fossil energy without government support?
No, it is not that beautiful, says Sanne de Boer, energy expert from Raboresearch. The government is even crucial. Because the cover to renewable energy revolves around so much more than just the price of solar panels, batteries and windmills. Space must be made, the power grid must be weighted, there must be storage for surplus energy. “The government is needed. Outdated laws must be adjusted, accelerated permit procedures, manpower found. The full power grid slows down the change now. ”
The cover to renewable energy revolves around so much more than just the price of solar panels, batteries and windmills
Moreover, the financial benefit of new wind farms and solar panels is becoming smaller. There is now so much renewable energy that there is too much electricity on sunny and windy days. The price of electricity is then negative. De Boer: “Investments in sun and wind become less profitable. Very nice that solar panels and wind turbines are getting cheaper, but you can’t make it if you want to make the entire energy system more sustainable. ”
The government can solve this problem, for example by making it attractive for companies to create large battery packages that can store the excess wind energy. “In California, that electricity prices is already stabilizing. The Netherlands is lagging behind: we have high net rates that now stop.” What also helps: thick cables to other countries, so that countries can decrease each other’s energy. “That requires large investments.”
Transition
There is another reason that the transition to renewable energy without government aid will stick. So far, there was pretty good speed in the construction of solar and wind energy, in the supply So, but the ask Electricity is not growing fast enough. There are still too few electric cars, many houses are still being heated with gas and industrial companies do not electrify their production fast enough.
That is why companies that build wind farms at sea now. Will there be enough demand for their electricity? “The wind companies are taking a huge gamble on the electricity price by continuing to build. Of course they don’t do that, “says Pieter Boot of the Center for International Energy Policy.
And it is precisely on that question side that the government is pushing less hard. Subsidies for electric cars have been reduced. The current and the previous cabinet wanted to help the industry make it greener, but those ‘customized agreements’ are not getting off the ground. Boot: “With renewable energy it is going fast in Europe so far. But if the government doesn’t do anything anymore, it will stop tomorrow. ”
Energy crisis
Yet the farmer and boat think that European governments will continue to stimulate renewable energy. Not so much to prevent climate change, but to become more independent of energy from Russia, Qatar and the United States. “The harder Trump Landen intimidates, the faster European politicians want to become independent,” says Louise of Schaik of the Clingendael Institute. “They know how much money they had to pay abroad during the energy crisis.”
But here too the EU stands for a dilemma. Becoming energy-independent goes faster with cheap Chinese plug cars, electrolysers, batteries, windmills and solar panels. But it is precisely on those products that the EU is considering importing the European industry a chance to grow up. And to prevent Europe from becoming too dependent on China.
Despite all the obstacles, climate -friendly energy will continue to grow, the three, albeit less quickly. There is still political, social and economic momentum and not just in Europe.
But does that also mean less use of fossil fuels? Van Schaik: “The demand for energy might increase enormously due to AI for which many more data centers have to run.” Renewable energy then mainly provides the extra demand for energy. Boot: “When we discovered coal, we continued to use the same amount of wood. When we discovered oil, we continued to use many coal. ”
Anyone who really wants to get rid of fossil fuels, have to pursue a harder policy than lazy to the historically incorrect idea of a self-pushing energy transition, the French historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz argues in his book More and More and More. Exciting fossil energy is no less than an amputation. And without firm political will it is hard.