Will Draghi really resign on Wednesday? ‘If he comes back to it, he undermines his own image’

Mario Draghi at his home in Rome.Image ANP / EPA

Rosa, what are the Italians more concerned with at the moment: the political crisis or the enormous heat?

‘Well, they’re used to the heat here, and to a certain extent political crises too. Last week, especially the divorce of Francesco Totti and his wife kept people busy here. In Rome, of course, no footballer is bigger.

‘No joke: such a political crisis is quite difficult for many people to follow. So I can’t say it’s the talk of the town for everyone.’

What makes this crisis so complex for the normal Italian?

‘Italian politics is not the most accessible in the world. This is partly because parties split up very often. This makes it difficult to follow exactly who thinks what and who belongs to which camp.

‘That is also happening now. The originator of the crisis, the Five Star Movement, tore in two last month after a conflict between the party’s two key politicians: Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio and former President Guiseppe Conte. That was about the line of the Italian government, with which Conte disagreed. He has therefore provoked the current crisis a bit, but in the meantime you have also seen people from his camp split from him in recent days. There is therefore a lot of disagreement within the party about which course to follow.’

Draghi sounded very pessimistic last week about the future of his government without the support of a majority coalition, even announcing his resignation. Why could he have changed his mind?

‘The last few days have been a huge appeal to him. 1,500 mayors from across the country signed an open letter asking for his stay. Employers’ organizations and entrepreneurs want him to stay, for the stability of the country. Also Brussels and the financial markets do not want him to go.

“Last Thursday, when he tendered his resignation but the president didn’t accept it, the Milan stock market fell sharply. When the next day there was a possibility that he would stay, you saw the prices recover. I don’t know if Draghi is very sensitive to that, but the reaction to his resignation could be a reason to stay on.’

Wouldn’t Draghi’s credibility be seriously damaged if he stays on?

‘That’s kind of the paradox I see. Draghi is known for his reliability, that he is a man of his word. He was very clear last week: I am not going to rule any further. If he comes back to that now, he also undermines his own image a bit.’

‘He doesn’t want to, and I say that with a bit of a heavy word, come across as blackmailed. If the government goes ahead, a discussion will start about who should make concessions to whom. He does not want to give the parties the impression that everything is now open for negotiation. It is precisely with that idea that the Five Star Movement will have set this crisis in motion.’

What awaits Italian politics if the government falls on Wednesday?

If Draghi resigns on Wednesday and the president accepts it, there are two options. The first is that the president asks parliament: look for another majority. That would be very difficult, as there have already been three different governments with this parliament since the last election in 2018. It seems unlikely to me that they will be able to find a majority.

“The obvious scenario is that early elections are called. These should then take place at the end of September or the beginning of October. In particular, the only party in the opposition, Fratelli d’Italia, a sort of re-establishment of Mussolini’s party, seems to gain from this.’

Draghi is already the sixth Italian Prime Minister in the last ten years. What does it say that even a popular, non-partisan politician like him has so much trouble holding his own as Prime Minister?

“It says that Italian politics is very divided. There is a lot of switching of sides, there is little loyalty and stability. Draghi is quite popular, abroad but also in Italy. However, you should not forget that there are also many people against him.

“Sometimes it’s not even about Draghi’s person or policy. Some of the Italians think that the country should have gone to the polls after the fall of the previous government. It was then in the middle of the pandemic. But it is not a sign of an optimally functioning democracy that you need a technocrat with a coalition of ten parties to achieve a national government.’

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