In their public responses, party leaders are united in their expressions of support for PVV leader Geert Wilders. They all know that the PVV leader has hardly been able to move freely for more than twenty years due to persistent threats. On Friday, Wilders said he was temporarily ceasing his campaign activities after a report that he was a possible target of the terror suspects arrested in Antwerp on Thursday.
Wilders therefore did not come to the party leader debate on Friday NPO Radio 1 and also unsubscribed from it RTLdebate next Sunday evening. Anti-terrorism service NCTV now no longer expects a “residual threat” from Belgium, Wilders wrote in his X-message, but the PVV leader himself had “a bad feeling about it.”
“I wish Geert Wilders all the best,” Frans Timmermans (GroenLinks-PvdA) responded to
At the same time, it is a major setback for Wilders’ opponents that they cannot debate with the party that is comfortably leading in the polls, and which was also the largest government party of the original Schoof cabinet.
The TV debates were an opportunity to attack Wilders on his plans, his results in the coalition, and the way he dropped the cabinet in June. Now Henri Bontenbal (CDA), Frans Timmermans, and Dilan Yesilgöz (VVD) can only attack each other on Sunday. And Rob Jetten, who can participate in the RTL debate as the fourth party leader due to Wilders’ cancellation.
Uncomfortable
What makes Wilders’ decision even more uncomfortable for the other parties: they know that Wilders already selectively chooses where he will and will not show himself during the campaign. And that even without a current terrorist threat, he does not hesitate to cancel interviews and TV debates, sometimes at the last minute.
Even before the news about the Belgian terror suspects, Geert Wilders had an interview with News hour cancelled, as well as the second RTL debate, which will be held next Sunday with six party leaders.
You don’t hear the other party leaders complaining about that out loud. Then it would seem as if they were putting the terrorist threat against Wilders into perspective. What they do say is that they hope to be able to debate with him later. “Hopefully he can soon safely join us for these kinds of debates,” Jetten said. Yesilgöz proposed moving Sunday’s RTL debate to a secret location without an audience. “Let’s see how it can be done,” she said in Café Kockelmann.
RTL reports that alternative locations and a debate via video connection have been discussed with the PVV, but the party rejects this. According to RTL News-editor-in-chief Ilse Openneer, the debate location has been approved by the NCTV, the police and the Guard and Security Service, which carries out Wilders’ personal security.
Leak personal security
The discomfort surrounding Wilders’ sudden withdrawal is reminiscent of the 2017 campaign. Then, three weeks before the House of Representatives elections, a leak in his personal security came to light. An agent of the Guard and Security Service was arrested for passing on secret information to a Moroccan-Dutch crime organization, and he was later convicted of this. The NCTV quickly ruled that it was safe enough for Wilders to campaign. The PVV leader himself wanted to be on the safe side and put his campaign activities on hold for the time being.
But even before the news of the security breach, Wilders, who was also leading in the polls at the time, had canceled most TV debates. PVV campaign leader Martin Bosma said about the PVV’s absence from the Radio 1 debate: “It is about us.” He canceled an RTL debate that Wilders was supposed to attend a week in advance out of anger about an RTL interview with his critical brother Paul Wilders. Ultimately, Wilders participated in only two TV debates in 2017, in the last two days before the elections.
Wilders can afford to skip TV debates more easily than other party leaders. Especially for floating voters, these types of debates are a way to determine their vote. But the PVV has relatively many ‘regular voters’ who are not considering any other party. According to the latest Ipsos I&O poll, last Wednesday, 8 percent of all voters are already (almost) certain of a choice for the PVV, which amounts to about 12 seats. For all other parties this is at most 2 percent.
With such a loyal following, the PVV has less to gain from TV debates, especially as long as the party is so comfortably at the top of the polls. Although traditionally for Wilders there is always another risk: that some of his potential voters stay at home on election day. It is therefore quite conceivable that Wilders does not want to remain invisible, and that he will still participate in some TV debates in the final phase of the campaign, just like in 2017. His campaign stop then lasted six days.
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