At this point, Javier Milei looks like a Donald Trump groupie. She follows him everywhere, seeks to gain his attention, take photos with him, become an ally as well as a fan. He did it from day one, before assuming power, when he traveled to the United States as president-elect and moved heaven and earth to meet with him and not, as the rules dictate, with his then colleague Joseph Biden, who was in charge of the White House. Although that initial meeting did not prosper – it would have been a diplomatic scandal – the truth is that, since then, Milei and Trump added meetings and selfies and also reached an agreement that is key for Argentina in recent weeks: a financial aid of 20 billion dollars from the North American Treasury, in addition to the intervention of that institution in the Argentine exchange market, buying pesos to avoid a run on the greenback.
This Tuesday the 14th, in Washington, the new photo of Trump and Milei re-edits the carnal relations of Menem and Guido Di Tella with George Bush Sr. in the 90s, and once again brings calm to the markets after several days of fear. But the reality is that, apart from a certain exchange rate pax, that selfie barely manages to mitigate the social bad mood that just weeks ago led to the electoral catastrophe that sank the Government in the Provincial elections, where it was 14 points behind Peronism. That is to say, the photo is calm, but it does not translate into votes: it barely helps the libertarians to reach October 26 without major shocks. But what then?
Some surveys that the ruling party manages privately scare Milei and her small table. For example, the one that speaks of an even greater difference than before, of about 20 points, in Buenos Aires territory. If that scenario were to occur, Monday the 27th would be the closest thing to a nightmare due to the foreseeable reaction of the markets. How would they do to contain the dollar with that result, especially when the Monetary Fund itself sotto voce demands a devaluation or exchange “correction”? And how would the Government prevent a run – or, in the best of cases, an orderly adjustment – from having an impact on prices? Because a rise in the dollar – which the establishment inevitably expects – would force the Government to hand over the only flag that still holds up, that of the fight against inflation. And that is something that smacks of early disempowerment and compromised governance, no matter how many selfies Milei gets with Uncle Donald.
Because photos are not the same as votes.
