Due to a weakness in the European World Cup qualification mode, San Marino can increase its chances of participating in the World Cup with a heavy defeat. Bosnia-Herzegovina would suffer more.
This is probably not what the inventors of the qualification mode at the major football associations FIFA and UEFA imagined. The complex system for the preliminary rounds on the way to the 2026 World Cup with group phases, playoffs and additional incentives via the Nations League could thwart sporting competition in the coming weeks.
Football dwarf San Marino, which lost 10-0 in Austria just last week, could increase its own chances of a World Cup ticket with a significant defeat in Romania on November 18th.
Backdoor Nations League
“How does this work?”the interested football fan will ask themselves – especially in view of San Marino’s record of zero points and a goal difference of 1:32 in qualifying. Austria’s former top scorer Toni Polster even named the team last week “a selection of pizza makers”.
The direct qualification is of course over given the last place in the group. But in addition to the twelve direct tickets, four further UEFA places will be played out via the playoffs in the spring of next year. A total of 16 participants are being sought – twelve group runners-up from the World Cup qualification and four Nations League group winners.
And that’s where San Marino comes into play. The enclave surrounded by Italy surprisingly won its group with Liechtenstein and Gibraltar in the last Nations League season and can therefore hope for a starting place. The prerequisite is that enough higher-placed group winners in the new competition either qualify directly for the World Cup or already have a playoff ticket as runners-up.
It’s about Bosnia vs. Romania
In qualifying group H with Austria, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Cyprus, it can therefore be crucial who ends up ahead of San Marino and in what order. Because: Romania was the Nations League group winner, Bosnia was not.
Austria leads the group (15 points) ahead of Bosnia (13) and Romania (10). Bosnia and Romania meet on the penultimate matchday. In the event of a draw or a win for the Romanians, San Marino can use a heavy defeat in the final to allow Romania to move past Bosnia and thus increase their chances of qualifying for the playoffs.
Significantly larger football nations such as former world champions Italy or Sweden with Liverpool star Alexander Isak are also about to take part in the playoffs. For the first time, 48 nations will be competing at the World Cup in the USA, Mexico and Canada (June 11 to July 19) – including debutants such as Uzbekistan, Jordan and Cape Verde.