For years, parcel logistics grew at the pace of the e-commerce boom. The increase in volumes made it possible to expand networks, add capacity and absorb inefficiencies that, in another context, would hardly have been sustainable. But that cycle changed. Today the sector faces a different reality: higher costs, underutilized resources and clients who demand increasingly faster, traceable and flexible deliveries.
In this new scenario, the discussion is no longer just about lowering expenses. Above all, it involves developing true “cost intelligence”: the ability to accurately understand the real cost of serving each package, each route, each customer and each section in the network. According to BCG, this will be one of the main sources of competitive advantage for logistics operators in the coming years.
Why does this gain so much relevance? Because the last mile (that is, the final stage of delivery) today represents between 50 and 60% of the total cost, and the traditional door-to-door delivery model has lost density. It is not about distributing large volumes concentrated in a few points, but rather covering residential routes with one or two deliveries per stop. This makes the operation more expensive, increases failed attempts and erodes efficiency.
Faced with this pressure, some responses are beginning to consolidate that indicate where the sector is going. One is to strengthen delivery outside the home, through lockers or collection points, which can cost between 30% and 40% less than home delivery. Another is to redesign the returns system, historically seen as a sunk cost, to turn it into a more integrated, digital and efficient network. And a third, perhaps the most decisive, is to incorporate automation, data analytics and artificial intelligence not as isolated initiatives, but as a central part of the operating model.
In this sense, artificial intelligence already shows three specific impacts: dynamic optimization of routes and capacity, predictive management of risks and volumes, and more personalized delivery experiences for the customer. But technology alone does not solve the problem. The fundamental change appears when this intelligence is integrated transversally into planning, pricing, dispatch and the commercial relationship.
The lesson for the sector is clear: in logistics, efficiency stopped being just an operational improvement and became a strategic decision. Leadership will no longer be in the hands of whoever moves the most packages, but rather whoever best understands how much it costs to move them and acts accordingly. In this new stage of parcel delivery, growing without cost intelligence is no longer a strength. Today, directly, it is a vulnerability.
* Alfonso Astudillo is managing director & partner of BCG
by Alfonso Astudillo
