Will Formula 1 only crown a new champion in the very last race for the first time since 2021? Since the disqualification of McLaren drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in Las Vegas last weekend, this is again a real possibility. While Verstappen’s role initially seemed to have been played out, after the exclusion he is 24 points behind Norris, and on level terms with Piastri.
Everything depends on what happens this weekend when the drivers compete in Qatar in the penultimate round of the world championship. What does Max Verstappen have to do to have a chance at the title in the final race at Abu Dhabi on December 7 – and how can the battle be decided on the course in the desert near Doha?
It is not possible to give a clear answer to those questions, because there are not one, but two races on the program in Qatar. On Saturday, at 3 p.m. Dutch time, the sprint race over a shorter distance, and on Sunday at 5 p.m. the grand prix. The drivers can earn points in both races, so the number of possible outcomes is too large to summarize in a handy list of if-then scenarios.
The initiative lies with Norris
However, a few things are clear. First of all: the championship cannot be decided in the sprint race anyway. Even if Norris wins, and Piastri and Verstappen both drop out or finish outside the top eight, he can still be overtaken. The Brit’s lead would then grow to 32 points, while a maximum of 50 can be achieved in the remaining two grands prix.
Piastri captured pole position for the sprint on Friday evening. He starts two places ahead of Norris, while Verstappen only set the sixth fastest time in a difficult session. He was even slower than his usually rather mediocre teammate Yuki Tsunoda.
Secondly: Norris has the initiative thanks to his comfortable points lead. Even if Verstappen wins the three races to come, he will remain dependent on Norris’ results (which of course also applies to Piastri). Three third places are enough for Norris to stay at the top of the rankings – in fact, in the sprint race next Saturday he could even finish one spot lower.
In that respect, it helps the World Cup leader enormously that his McLaren is so good that normally only Piastri and Verstappen are serious competition. Norris probably doesn’t have to worry about Mercedes, Ferrari and the rest. Even if he loses the battle against his only remaining title rivals, he could theoretically still cruise to his first championship quite comfortably.
But that’s the theory. In reality, such scenarios rarely develop so linearly. An ill-timed yellow flag during qualifying, a bad start: Norris could just as well end up outside the top three, and then it is not that easy to get back on the fast, winding circuit in Qatar, even if the cars in front of him are in principle slower.
It would also not be the first time that the championship leader has let the whole thing fall out of his hands with two races to go. For example, the Argentinian Carlos Reutemann was well on course in 1981, until he lost the title to Max Verstappen’s later father-in-law Nelson Piquet with poor performances in the two final Grands Prix. Nigel Mansell (1986), Lewis Hamilton (2007) and Fernando Alonso (2010) can also talk about it.
Clear assignment
Ultimately, the three contenders all have a clear assignment this weekend. If Norris is at least two points ahead after the sprint and the grand prix, he will be champion anyway. Even if he increases his lead over number two by one point, Norris can secure the title. Provided he wins the grand prix on Sunday. In Abu Dhabi, the number two could still be on the same level in that case – the title fight would always be in Norris’s favor, because he would have more victories than Verstappen and more second places than Piastri.
Verstappen’s mission (like Piastri’s) is exactly the opposite of Norris’s. Whatever happens, Norris cannot increase his lead at the Lusail International Circuit. Every time Verstappen sees Norris’ orange-black car driving in front of him instead of in his mirrors, whether in the sprint or in the grand prix, he knows that his title chances are directly or indirectly in mortal danger.
There is no clear favorite for Qatar. The McLaren was dominant on similar circuits earlier this year. But the Red Bull has improved greatly in the meantime and Verstappen, who has already won twice in Qatar, is in top form – although Friday’s sprint qualifying is not a hopeful sign for the Dutchman. In any case, it is certain that Verstappen and Piastri can no longer afford any form of setback.
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