As a result of the AI boom, there is a risk of a renewed shortage of critical semiconductors – with potentially serious consequences for the cost structures of automobile manufacturers.
• Wells Fargo: Chipmakers could focus on AI industry
• The auto industry could therefore face a chip shortage
• There is a risk of significant cost increases
When it comes to material procurement, German industry can breathe a sigh of relief for the time being, as the supply situation improved at the end of the year. According to the Ifo Institute, only 7.5 percent of companies reported difficulties in procuring necessary materials in December, after this figure had been 11.2 percent in November. “The availability of intermediate products in the industry has improved overall,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, head of ifo surveys. Nevertheless, he warns of vigilance: “The supply chains must continue to be closely monitored.”
The development in the automotive industry is particularly striking. According to the Ifo Institute, the proportion of companies with bottlenecks fell massively from 27.6 percent in November to just 5.6 percent in December. A key reason for this calming situation is probably the relaxation surrounding the chip manufacturer Nexperia.
The Nexperia Factor: A Politically Charged Conflict
A geopolitical dispute is simmering behind the scenes of chip supply. Last fall, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs intervened in the management of Nexperia after reports that the Chinese owner was planning to relocate know-how and capacity to China. As a result, China stopped exporting Nexperia chips. Although this ban has now been relaxed, the conflict has not been completely resolved.
New danger from the AI boom
Despite the current recovery, the situation remains fragile. The ifo Institute points out that chip manufacturers’ increased focus on AI applications is increasing demand for certain capacities and could put individual industrial sectors under renewed pressure.
Analysts at Wells Fargo also share this assessment. According to Investing.com, automakers are likely to face renewed supply disruptions and cost pressures due to increasing chip demand from data centers and AI applications. The focus is particularly on dynamic random access memory (DRAM), which is essential for infotainment systems and assistance systems in modern vehicles.
The automotive industry is losing bargaining power
The market power of car manufacturers is visibly dwindling in this segment. According to Wells Fargo analysts, the automotive sector accounts for less than 10 percent of the global DRAM market. This puts the industry at a disadvantage as chip producers give preference to higher margin customers, such as cloud and AI operators, the report said.
The price development for memory is already drastic: According to Wells Fargo, DDR5 spot prices are currently more than eight times and DDR4 prices are even more than sixteen times higher than the average prices for 2024.
Gloomy prospects for 2026: Is there a risk of production stops?
There is no improvement in sight – on the contrary: the experts are predicting a significant market tightness for the coming year. According to Wells Fargo, global DRAM demand is expected to increase by 26 percent, while supply is only expected to grow by 21 percent, resulting in a mathematical shortfall of about 14 percent.
This has a direct financial impact: Analysts currently estimate DRAM content per vehicle at around $50 to $110 and warn that recent price jumps could lead to a significant cost increase in 2026, according to Investing.com. Premium vehicles and electric cars are particularly affected due to their high storage content.
The situation is already reminiscent of dark times: Wells Fargo is already seeing signs of panic buying that are reminiscent of the chip crisis of 2021. If manufacturers are not prepared to absorb the higher costs, production disruptions could ultimately result.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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