Frankfurt (dpa-AfX)-The development of the Israeli-Iranian war remains an important factor for the stricken stock exchanges in the new week. It is still unclear whether and when the United States will intervene directly in the conflict – even if President Donald Trump has recently set a decision period of two weeks. In contrast, investors have already had a number of important monetary -political changes. Now the first corporate figures on the latest business development are increasingly focusing – and the end of the negotiation period in the customs conflict between the United States and the European Union in July.
With Trump’s announcement on Iran, hope for a negotiating solution in the Middle East, writes capital market strategist Jürgen Molnar from the Robomarkets Handelshaus. “However, nobody knows whether the faithful president will adhere to this deadline or what purpose this decision should serve.”
Analyst Christian Henke from the Broker IG also has doubts about Trump’s patience. The United States could shortly attack goals of the Iranian nuclear program and thus become the goal of counterattacks, according to his fear. An Iranian blockage of the Hormus waterway, which is important for the global oil supply, would also drive oil prices and thus also inflation upwards – “the stock markets should then suffer from this”.
According to Henke, the DAX, which has already fallen far from his record high, is threatened in this scenario, according to Henke. At the beginning of June, the German leading index set up its last record with 24,479 points. Since then it has almost only been going downhill. The 21-day average line, which is important for the short-term trend, fell days ago. Thanks to the current stabilization, the stock market barometer has just caught up on the 50-day line that is significantly significant.
Since the beginning of the year, however, the DAX has still been better than the other important European stock indices – not to mention the US exchanges. The few indices that have increased even more than the DAX in the first half of the year are the Hong Kong Hang Seng and the South Korean Kospi.
When comparing the international indices with the German stock market barometers, it should be noted that dividends are taken into account in this country when calculating the index stands, which is internationally unusual. This makes the performance of the DAX look a little better, but even without taking the distributions into account, the picture does not change significantly.
So far, the markets have been quite unimpressed by the development in the Middle East, stating investment strategists Mark Dowding from RBC Bluebay Asset Management. Even the oil prices have only increased by about $ 10 since the beginning of the conflict. A blockade of the Hormus street considers Dowding to be rather unlikely, since it would also harm Iran’s allied China. In addition, the United States would have little interest in direct engagement in the war, since Trump’s supporters are also divided on this question.
With a view to the economy, purchasing manager data from industry and the service sector are on the agenda worldwide at the beginning of the new week. The IFO business climate (Tuesday) and the GfK consumer trust (Thursday) should be important for Germany. Of the numerous US data, consumer confidence (Tuesday), a new estimate for economic growth in the first quarter (Thursday) and that for the domestic Monetary policy Important PCE price index (Friday).
The Internet participation company Prosus wants to present figures for the past financial year on Monday and will stop a capital market day on Wednesday. In addition, a hematology investor event of the pharmaceutical company Roche takes place at the beginning of the week, which could also move the courses on local industry companies.
On Tuesday, the hardware store-Holding Hornbach from the German Sdage Sdax is presented its quarterly report. In addition, a two -day capital market event of the car supplier and tire manufacturer Continental begins. It is also designed for two days for the booming end Armaments Important NATO summits in the Hague in Dutch.
On Wednesday, the US hal headmaster manufacturer Micron (Micron Technology) will inform about his business development. The next day the textile group Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) (Hennesmauritz (HM, H&M)) and – in the late evening – the US sports articles and adidas -competitor (adidas) Nike./Gl/la/he
— from Gerold Löhle, dpa-Afx —