(updated with new statements from the USA and Iran)
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – After a strong week for the German stock market, the DAX could continue to rise. However, the war in the Middle East could stall the latest price rally in the leading index at any time. “Due to the erratic news situation regarding Iran, shareholders have to endure price fluctuations,” commented Robert Halver, capital market strategist at Baader Bank. The Dax is likely to continue to be particularly dependent on the development of the much-noticed oil prices.
An agreement between the United States and Iran is being priced almost stoically on the European stock markets, the experts at Index Radar noted. At the weekend, US President Donald Trump initially described an agreement with Tehran as close. He later said that any possible agreement should not be rushed. Iran also dampened expectations of an imminent agreement. In addition, criticism of feared details was voiced in the USA.
Both countries are still far apart when it comes to the question of enriched uranium, said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from QC Partners. “Iran’s intended tariffs for the Strait of Hormuz could also lead to complicated discussions.”
Investment strategist Mark Dowding from RBC BlueBay Asset Management even fears further military strikes in view of the sluggish peace talks: “The more time passes, the sooner Iran will realize that its own influence is increasing.” The most likely way out for the USA is to give up its own demands. US President Trump wants to sell his campaign as a great success. “Against this background, it cannot be ruled out that the US will decide to bomb Iran again in a final act of defiance,” said Dowding.
From the perspective of LBBW strategist Berndt Fernow, however, a resumption of hostilities is becoming less likely, not least because of the upcoming US midterm elections. The Iran war is extremely unpopular in the United States. Fernow still sees limited potential for further upward surprises for the Dax. Even if the conflict were resolved in a constructive way, the effect could quickly dissipate and give way to consideration of the economic damage caused. In the Dax, “the battle between bulls and bears has not yet been decided”.
According to Martin Utschneider, capital market expert at broker Robomarkets, the indicator situation remains rather contradictory and at the same time urges caution. It still remains to be seen whether the DAX has enough strength to sustainably advance into higher price regions.
The new week is likely to start a little slower, regardless of the news situation. On Monday, US stock markets will be closed on Memorial Day. In this country, trading takes place despite Whit Monday, but Marcel Mußler, editor of the Börsen-Briefe of the same name, is still expecting a very slow start to the week.
On Wednesday and Thursday, some of the latecomers to the reporting season could still be a topic of conversation. Quarterly figures are on the agenda from, among others, the commercial real estate specialist Aroundtown (Aroundtown SA), the Swedish Verve Group and the ticket marketer and organizer CTS Eventim.
At the end of the week there will be the economic highlight with consumer price data from Germany. “The inflation rate is likely to have risen above three percent in May for the first time since the end of 2023,” said Robert Greil, chief strategist at private bank Merck Finck. The longer the Iran war lasts and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the longer this will lead to high energy prices and ultimately rising inflation.
“The war in the Middle East is not leaving its mark on the labor market either,” commented Helaba expert Simon Azarbayjani, referring to the unemployment figures, which are also due on Friday. These are likely to have continued to rise, as some positions would not be filled in the face of deteriorating business expectations. Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Dekabank, also expects a weak second quarter of the economy in Germany because of the sentiment indicators published so far./niw/gl/he
— By Nicklas Wolf, dpa-AFX —