That Gerasimov was in Ukraine is confirmed by all kinds of sources – Ukrainian, Russian and American. The New York Times writes in a reconstruction that Gerasimov was indeed visiting Izhum on Saturday evening. However, according to the American newspaper, he had already left when Ukrainian artillery ‘School No. 12’ under fire. The school building turned out to be in use as an advanced command post from which the Russian advance into the Donbas was directed.
A barrage of rockets hit the building, where some 40 senior officers were present at the time – again according to Ukrainian sources. At least twenty officers and two hundred junior soldiers are said to have been killed in the bombing. Among them was Major General Andrei Simonov, who according to Ukrainian sources is already the tenth (Western sources say: ninth) Russian general to have been killed in Ukraine.
Wave of speculation
Early reports of the attack focused on Simonov, whose death was confirmed by Ukrainian authorities, including Oleksiy Arestovich, adviser to President Zelensky. Arestovich then still mentioned a number of a hundred dead, but that number was later, also inThe New York Times, increased to two hundred. Reports soon surfaced that Gerasimov was also on the scene during the attack, and a wave of internet speculation started.
It is not disputed that Gerasimov personally came to the front. He would have to accelerate the painfully slow Russian advance there. President Vladimir Putin seems to believe in the physical presence of a general at the front, and especially a general who can align all those other generals.
In April, therefore, he appointed Aleksandr Dvornikov overall commander of the battle in Ukraine. Dvornikov had made his mark in Syria and was regarded as a successful swordsman. However, just days after his appointment, the cruiser Moskwa, the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, was sunk by Ukrainian missiles. That was an extremely painful loss for Putin, which Dvornikov had not been able to avoid.
Now that the offensive in the east and south of Ukraine is not going as well as Putin had hoped – partly due to increasing Western arms aid to Ukraine – all he could do was send an even higher general. He had only one left, the most senior: Valery Gerasimov is chief of staff of the Russian army and, along with Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, Putin’s confidant and top adviser on war affairs.
The New York Times cites unnamed “Western military analysts” who see Gerasimov’s dispatch as evidence of the disarray of the Russian military. Izyum, where the forward command post was located, was the center from which the Russian advance was directed.
No quick push
The intention was to encircle part of the Ukrainian army with a swift thrust, an achievement that could possibly be presented as a victory in Russia as early as next week. The arrival of Gerasimov should have given the men new courage.
On May 9, Moscow commemorates the victory over Germany in World War II with a large military parade. Especially after the devastating attack on the command center, in which half the staff was killed, it is almost impossible that a quick thrust can be presented as an achievement there.
Gerasimov is according to The New York Times unharmed, because according to the newspaper he was already gone when the rockets fell. According to other sources, however, the general was indeed ‘near the attack’ and three of his aides were killed. According to the Ukrainian ex-minister Arsen Avarov, who invoked an ‘insider in Russia’, Gerasimov was allegedly hit by a bomb fragment in his right thigh, but the bone was not broken.
In any case, the general has cut short his visit to the front. On Sunday, according to another ‘source’, Gerasimov boarded a Defense Ministry plane in Belgorod and flew back to Moscow. He has not been seen there since.