One dollar more per barrel – UBS has adapted its oil price forecast to a manageable extent. The careful raising is nevertheless remarkable because it comes with a clear warning: the oil market is on a shaky foundation.
• UBS raises Brent oil price forecast from 66 to $ 67 per barrel
• Analysts expect falling prices in the second half of the year
• US oil stock stocks increase – demand development remains behavior
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Geopolitics as a disruptive factor – not as a trend reversal
The major Swiss bank UBS has easily adapted its expectation for the average Brent Prize in the current year, from 66 to $ 67 per barrel. According to the bank, the reason for this correction is especially geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran. In the spring, these had led to a temporary price rally, which Brent temporarily drove the $ 80 mark. The increase worked at short notice, but violent – a typical risk premium that is common in volatile raw material markets, as it is said at Investing.com, citing UBS analysts.
A stronger third quarter – but no reason for euphoria
The more optimistic assessment applies especially to the third quarter of 2025. Here, UBS now expects an average price of $ 65 per barrel – three dollars more than before. But this adaptation comes with a reservation: over the course of the year, the bank again expects falling prices. For the fourth quarter, the analysts see a level in the lower 60s area. The argument is sober: As soon as the geopolitical situation calms down, the actual market data focuses on again and they speak a rather pessimistic language, according to the analysts investing.
An oil market under structural pressure
What the UBS brings to this assessment is primarily the development on the offer side. The Opec+ – the extended alliance of the large conveyor countries – plans to gradually bring more oil onto the market from August. The previous funding cuts recently caused a certain stability. But with the growing output, the risk of oversupply increases. At the same time, the inventory in the United States is increasing again. According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, 680,000 barrels were recently stored – another sign that the demand does not keep up with the offer, as Oil & Gas 360 confirmed.
In addition, there is a seasonal effect: the summer travel time in the west will soon reach its peak. After that, experience has shown that less fuel is used up, a fact that is regularly reflected in falling prices.
The market remains fragile
Even if the market has repeatedly responded to political uncertainties in recent months, the fundamental framework conditions remain crucial according to the UBS. The analysts speak of a “Near-Term Bearish” scenario. In other words, prices could soon come under pressure if no new stoves flare up and the oversupply becomes reality.
Editor finance.net
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