After the air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that US President Donald Trump had ordered, Iran continues to have the necessary components for the construction of a nuclear weapon. At the same time, military hardliners, who are dissatisfied with the spiritual leadership of spiritual leadership, are increasingly gaining influence in Tehran, Like several sources rolling stone report.
Trump claimed that the US attacks had “completely wasted” and attacked the media because she questioned this presentation after a leaked report by the defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which contradicts the government’s claims.
Due to unexplained questions about the hidden aspects of the Iranian nuclear program, hardly any definitive statements can be made about a time frame for the construction of a bomb – or whether Iran will actually decide to do so.
Ideological change in the Iranian system
However, the attacks of the United States and Israel triggered an ideological realignment within the Iranian government, which is referred to in Persian as “the system”. It is particularly important that the elites who have previously pursued a policy of “strategic patience” – a core component of this was now discredited to avoid a nuclear weapons program to avoid a direct conflict with the West.
“The hardliners in the system could now be on an update, since many of their reviews of diplomatic efforts and a negotiated solution to the nuclear dispute were essentially confirmed,” says Nicole Grajewski, an expert in Iran at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The system is under pressure and extreme constraints because it is weakened militarily – not to dominate Israel’s ability to dominate Iranian airspace.
“There is a limit of what Israel and the United States really know about the effects of their attacks,” says Ali Vaez, Iran Director of the International Crisis Group. “The crisis has become significantly more complicated – it is by no means solved.”
Disagreement about the goal
The parties to the conflict hardly show any signs to agree on what they want to achieve next. Israel said that the primary goal of his attack was to prevent Iran from purchasing a nuclear weapon, and at the same time called on the Iranian population to fall its government. Trump also spoke of a “change of regime” as a final solution – as well as Republican hardliners – but now his government states that she wants to return to negotiations.
A nuclear weapon is needed to access uranium; the ability to process the ore into a gas; the construction and operation of centrifuges for enrichment to high degree of purity; as well as the technical know-how to build an explosive body.
Gap material for civil purposes is enriched to around five percent – however, high -enriched uranium is required for weapons with at least 90 percent purity.
“I am not sure how well the attacks were really planned to quickly switch off all elements of the Iranian capacity structure for the production of weapon -capable uranium,” says Farzan Sabet, researcher at the Global Governance Center and operator of the blog Iran Wonk. “I’m rather skeptical as long as we have no further data.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors compliance with the Nuclear Weapon Weapon Contract (NPT), published a report on May 31, according to which Iran Highly enriched uranium and carried out other “illegal” activities.
Enriched uranium within reach for weapons production
“Iran can use its current uranium stock of 60 percent within three weeks in 233 kilograms [513 Pfund] Convert weapon-capable uranium-enough for nine atomic bombs, ”said analysts of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in their assessment of the IAEA report.
Such findings form the basis for claims that Iran is about to maintain a nuclear weapon – but whether he actually strives for this is just as much a question of political intent as technical skills.
Neither Israeli nor US officials made direct evidence that Iran started building a bomb after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In fact, the US intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard explained in March that “Iran still does not build a nuclear weapon and that the top guide Khamenei did not authorize the program exposed in 2003.”
Control by the IAEA weakened
At the pressure of Trump and his Maga base, Gabbard later revised this position and posted it on X that Iran could “produce a nuclear weapon within weeks to months if he opted for final assembly.”
Before the attacks, strict monitoring and inspection regime was crucial for the control of the Iranian program. Analysts of ISIS emphasize: “It is now urgently needed to focus on IAEA inspections at the center of relationships with Iran and to confirm that Iran should never receive a nuclear weapon.”
Iranian officials are now threatening to identify IAEA inspectors. It is unclear whether this is intended as a means of pressure for future negotiations – but if the IAEA is actually excluded, the global community loses the view of the Iranian nuclear program, while the internal pressure for the production of a weapon is growing.
The IAEA stated that the Iran has 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Experts suspect that part of this material before the US attacks was removed from the Fordow system-however, precise information is missing.
“We don’t know where this material is,” said IAEA general director Rafael Grossi last week. “Iran officially informed me of: ‘We will take protective measures’ – which may also include the relocation of the material.”
Hidden centrifuges and possible resumption
There are also open questions about the existing centrifuges. In 2018 Trump withdrew from the atomic deal with Iran, which was closed by ex-President Obama in 2015-the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA). The deal limited, among other things, the number of the permitted centrifuges. And allowed the IAEA access to check the NPT standards.
After Trump’s exit, Iran initially remained as part of the agreement. Up to a series of Israeli attacks in 2020 and 2021 on a centrifug-based production facility. After that, Tehran prohibited further inspections of the IAEA in this place.
“We knew that they had produced hundreds of modern centrifuges. We just didn’t know where,” says Vaez.
Destruction does not complete – threat remains
In an analysis after the attacks on Tuesday, ISIS found: “Overall, Israel and America’s attacks Iran’s centrifuges program have effectively destroyed.” Nevertheless, it continues: “However, stocks remain on 60, 20 and 3-5 percent enriched uranium. As well as non-installed centrifuges in Natanz or Fordow. These parts that are not destroyed represent a future threat.”
A complete recording of all centrifuges by Israel and the USA is unlikely. Despite the damage in Fordow, there are still production and enrichment systems in Natanz and Isfahan, which remained largely intact.
“You cannot ‘wipe’ a program if both centrifuges and 60 percent enriched uranium continue to exist,” said Senator Chris Murphy on Thursday after a confidential information.
Vaez notes that the technical effort for a bomb could be smaller than represented by politicians. “A few dozen progressive centrifuges fit into a small room without striking signatures. And can be used to enrich it to 90 percent when using 60 percent material.”
“With your 60 percent stock, you could have enough fleece for an atomic bomb in six days. And in less than a month for an entire arsenal,” Vaez told Rolling Stone.
From the material for deterrence – a long way
Although Iran has materials for the construction of an atomic bomb, this does not necessarily mean that it has decided. And there is a long way between a single functional bomb and several explosive heads as credible deterrence.
“I don’t know if you have a clear plan for diplomacy,” says Sabet. “I don’t know which end goal they are pursuing. Or what concessions they would be willing to make.”
“The quintessence is: the nuclear capacity of Iran has been reduced. But the will to buy nuclear weapons has increased,” says Vaez.
Repression instead of changing regime
Regardless of whether the will has increased – a change of regime did not take place. After the US and Israeli attacks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) strengthened its control over the country. She set up control points. Searched cell phones. Carried out mass arrests. And executed executions.
Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the system, many Iranians gathered behind the government. Which continued to work after attacks on their leadership.
After the US invasion in Iraq in 2003, IRGC introduced the “Mosaic doctrine”. To ensure the regime’s ability to survive in the event of an invasion.
“They expected an Iraq-like invasion. And understood that the leadership through attacks or precision strikes could be eliminated,” says Sabet. That is why regional IRGC headquarters received skills for local security at home and abroad.
At the beginning of “Operation Rising Lion”, Israel killed numerous IRGC commanders in June. Many of them have been advocates of strategic patience since the murder of General Qasem Soleimani by the United States 2020.
Parallels to the past
“At the time, they wanted to avoid a moderate answer and escalation,” said Sabet. A week after SoleuMani’s death, Iran attacked US positions in Iraq with coordinated, previously announced rocket attacks.
The answer last Monday was also moderate. Six Iranian short-range missiles to the US base Al-Treid in Qatar were all intercepted by Patriot systems.
Trump thanked publicly. “I would like to thank Iran for the early warning that made it possible to hurt nobody,” he wrote on social media.
War of information on social media
According to Matthew Ford, professor of war studies in Stockholm, social media is also a crucial battlefield. Israel presented its military success online during “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump is said to have changed his opinion on the participation in the conflict according to the FOX news reporting on the Israeli attack.
At the same time, information control is more difficult than ever. Israel imposed a news lock. But spread memes. Iran cut the Internet nationwide.
The United States also focuses on deception. While a spokesman announced that Trump would act “within two weeks”, online observers pursued publicly visible B-2 bombers on the way to the west. In fact, the attacks took place unnoticed by the east.
Public vs. reality
Media reports and online debates also influence domestic politics. In view of internal conflicts among MAGA supporters, the white house is sensitive to reporting.
“Secret information is repeated to harm the president,” said Defense Minister Pete Hegseth on Thursday.
But even if Trump’s presentation of a “complete extinction” should exist, the core question remains open. Will the attack actually prevent Iran from building an atomic bomb? This answer will not fall on social media. And not at a press conference.