While American and Iranian diplomats are preparing for a second round of negotiation on the Iranian atomic program, on Saturday in Rome, a struggle between two camps is raging within the Trump government. Haviken argue for maximum pressure on Tehran, others argue for a diplomatic compromise. For the time being it is unclear which course main negotiator Steve Witkoff will choose. If the negotiations fail, a military attack by Israel and the United States threatens on nuclear installations in Iran.
In fact, it could not have been better: the first consultation between the US and Iran about the Iranian atomic program in Oman last week. Prior to the meeting there were wild threats from President Trump to bomb Iran if it didn’t come to a deal. In turn, the Iranians spoke about a “wall of no confidence” that would stand between the two countries. But after the first round, positive sounds sounded from both the US and Iran.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs talked about ‘a constructive atmosphere’ and ‘mutual trust’ – language that Tehran normally does not notice when it comes to arch enemy America. The two countries agreed to talk to Rome on Saturday.
Was also promising the interview That Trumps envoy Witkoff gave FOX News on Monday evening. In it he said he would continue to talk to Iran about setting up a verification mechanism for enriching uranium. Such a kind of deal, where Iran can continue to perform limited nuclear activities under strict conditions, is Grosso Modo the same as the agreement that Obama concluded in 2015 with the Iranians. The US withdrew from this in Trumps first term. Trump called it “a terrible, one -sided deal that should never have been closed, but never,”.
They are conditions that Iran could now agree with, analysts say. Witkoff’s proposal brought a deal a lot closer than the hard demands of the Iran-Haviken within the US government. For example, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz has argued in recent weeks for a complete ‘dismantling’ of the Iranian atomic program. Such requirements have always been rejected by the Iranians and, according to them, make an agreement impossible.
Witkoff’s reconciling message therefore seemed a possible breakthrough. However, it soon became clear that the ideas struggle within the US government is still being fully conducted.
Two camps
On Tuesday morning, the day after Witkoff’s interview at Fox, Trump called together a meeting in the Situation room van het Witte Huis for a consultation about Iran. There two camps faced each other, A reconstruction shows From the American news site Axios.
Witkoff receives support from Vice President JD Vance and Minister of Defense Pete Hegseeth. They believe that the US should be willing to make concessions to reach an agreement with Iran. They also fear being sucked into a new war in the Middle East. Safety adviser Waltz and foreign minister Marco Rubio, on the other hand, continue to stick to full dismantling of the Iranian atomic program.
It is unclear whether the meeting was decisive in choosing a direction. But Witkoff seemed to come back that same morning on his words from the night before. “Iran has to stop and end his nuclear enrichment and armament program,” he wrote that same morning in a post on social media. Moreover, the press officer of the White House reported later that day that President Trump had said to the Omanian mediators in the negotiations that “Iran should end his nuclear program.”
According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the ‘conflicting positions’ of the Americans are ‘not conducive’ for the negotiations. He told Iranian media on Wednesday to wait for the meeting in Rome “to hear what their actual views are.”
War threatens
There is a lot at the game on Saturday in Rome. Wednesday made the The New York Times known that Israel in May wanted to perform air strikes on nuclear installations and advanced plans for this. The aim was to slow down the Iranian atomic program – which has now almost enriched Uranium to the weapon level – at least a year.
For such an operation, Israel did need American air support and help from the US to repel any Iranian retaliation attacks. Against all Israeli expectations, the US government rejected the plan. Netanyahu traveled to Washington at the beginning of this month to change Trump. But the US president decided to wait for negotiations with Iran for the time being. Trump then revealed those negotiations in the presence of Netanyahu in the Oval Office to the world.
Nevertheless, within the US government, there has indeed been seriously talking about supporting and participating in the Israeli war plans. In such a discussion, Vice President JD Vance (not in favor of the military approach) would have stated that the US could always support an Israeli attack on Iran in the event that the negotiations would fail. American participation in a war with Iran is therefore not excluded.
B-2 bombers
In recent weeks, the United States has expanded their military presence in the Middle East. For example, a second American aircraft carrier in the region reported and B-2 bombers were stationed on the American base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The Americans also placed extra air defense systems in Israel.
Since mid -March, the US has been carrying a bombing campaign against the Houthis supported by Iran in Yemen. The increased military presence can serve for this. Nevertheless, sources around the US government report to The New York Times that the weapons are indeed part of a broader plan to possibly assist Israel in a possible military conflict with Iran.
The armor and the diverse signals from Washington will do little (already) Iranian confidence in the US. This while agreements about disarmament are based on trust. When Iran plays their atomic program to limit, the idea is in Tehran, they are a lot more defenseless in a military confrontation with Israel or the US. The question is whether and how much confidence Witkoff knows on Saturday from his Iranian conversation partners.