Option 1: the Russians take the longest after a tough battle
‘Ukraine-light’ After three months of heavy fighting, it now seems the most viable option for Moscow: occupation of the Donbas and the strip of land to the east and south as far as Crimea. With the capture of the Donbas, where fighting has been going on for six weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin can still save face.
The Russian leader can then boast that the Russian-speaking population of Luhansk and Donetsk has been ‘liberated’, that the ‘Nazis’ in Mariupol have been defeated and that the Russian dream of a land connection with Crimea has finally been fulfilled.
Ultimately, in this scenario, the Russian army settles the ‘Battle of the Donbas’ with superior numbers and firepower. The 106 combat units that Putin has sent to Ukraine, of the more than 140 available to Russia, prove too many for the estimated 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas. The Russians manage to complete the encirclement of the Ukrainian army, which had been difficult for weeks.
With the drowsy beating of the opponent by the Giatsint S howitzers, the Russians manage to break through the Ukrainian lines at weak spots along the 500-kilometer-long truce line in the Donbas. Because Ukrainian units can no longer be supplied by the Russian encirclement and cities like Severodonetsk are pulverized as much as Mariupol, the situation becomes untenable.
The Ukrainian soldiers have to watch as the Western weapons, so crucial in the first months of the war, can no longer reach the Donbas. How quickly the Russians can settle the battle depends on the military risks Moscow is willing to take in this final phase of the war.
In particular, Ukraine must fear an important asset that Russia has not yet deployed: the massive deployment of the air force to support the offensive of the mechanized units on the ground. What is the reaction of Kyiv and the West when Putin declares the battle over, declares that the mission has been accomplished and shows willingness to sit down at the negotiating table? His bet: to keep all the conquered territory.
2. Ukraine does the unthinkable: it defeats the nuclear army
How long does it take for an invasion force that has lost about 15,000 soldiers in just 90 days to fall through its hooves? Who lost an entire combat unit while crossing a river. Who had to leave the Kyiv region with his tail between his legs, was beaten away from Charkiv and is unable to force a breakthrough in the Donbas.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ran out of words on Monday to praise the Ukrainian military. “Ukraine has been fighting with guts and tactical ingenuity for three months,” Austin said. “In this new phase, Ukraine is still fighting just as hard, and just as good.” Kyiv, emboldened by Western leaders who say Ukraine may win the war, is holding out on this option in the Donbas.
With the help of the new heavy weapons of the West, especially the howitzers, the Russian army is dealt heavy blows. Buoyed by the mounting Russian losses and the successful counter-offensive at Kharkiv, the Ukrainians even counterattack. They face a deeply entrenched Russian army, plagued by low morale, logistical problems and poor leadership.
The military leadership in Moscow, to Putin’s horror, is no longer able to turn the tide and has to watch as Russian units are increasingly pushed back in the Donbas. The Kremlin is coming under increasing pressure to negotiate, mainly due to the rising death toll. But Ukraine, buoyed by the territorial gains, doesn’t give a damn.
Before the invasion, it was always thought that time was in the favor of the Russians. It was only a matter of time before the Ukrainian army collapsed due to Russian superiority. It has now been reversed: the longer the war lasts, the more likely the invasion force will be eroded by the unprecedented losses. “Ukraine must win this war,” said EU chief Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday. “Putin’s aggression must be a strategic failure.”
Option 3: Stalemate
The war has now entered a phase reminiscent of a boxing match between two equal opponents: they knock each other down, but no one wins. What was feared for a long time has now come true in the Donbas. The ‘P’ word, of stalemate, is widely used by military experts these days. After all, the enormous tank battle that was foreseen did not materialize. The Russian army has been trying for weeks to advance from three sides to encircle the Ukrainians, but they have encountered fierce resistance.
If the Russians gain some ground, they have to give up again shortly after. They have some success here and there, but thanks to the weapons of the West, Ukraine cannot be taken by surprise. Kyiv, in turn, lacks the manpower and enough heavy weapons, such as tanks and planes, to throw the Russians out of the Donbas and the south.
British Deputy Defense Secretary James Heappey recently warned that the war could last at least a year. “I don’t see either side achieving anything very quickly,” Heappey said. The question is whether the international community will allow this blood loss. The pressure on Kyiv and Moscow to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations will only increase sharply.