This dividend stock is poised for a significant rebound in 2026

• 2025 was a crisis year for UnitedHealth
• Analyst: The stock is likely to soar in 2026
• Management addresses problems

UnitedHealth has recently made mostly negative headlines: In December 2024, the head of the UnitedHealthcare insurance division, Brian Thompson, was shot dead on the street in the middle of Manhattan. After the crime, however, there were an unusually large number of expressions of sympathy for the perpetrator in the USA. The background is that millions of Americans despair of expensive health care costs and UnitedHealthcare has a reputation for particularly frequently refusing treatments prescribed by doctors. The fatal attack was also followed by leadership disputes that further damaged the company’s image.

Financial difficulties at UnitedHealth

The company is also struggling financially. ABC News reports that UnitedHealth is struggling with rising treatment costs and government reimbursement cuts.

In April 2025, UnitedHealth lowered its full-year 2025 guidance. The following month, it suspended full-year guidance entirely and announced the unexpected departure of CEO Andrew Witty. Former boss Stephen Hemsley, who was then brought back to the top, raised the forecast slightly and expected a profit of at least $14.90 per share for 2025. But this goal is far below what his predecessor Witty had originally set out to achieve, as the original target was $28.15 to $28.65 before the company cut its annual targets in April.

Investigations by the authorities

In addition, UnitedHealth was burdened by the fact that the company was targeted by the authorities. The US Department of Justice (DoJ) has launched a criminal and civil investigation into billing practices in the Medicare Advantage program – a core business of America’s largest health insurer. There are suspicions that UnitedHealth may have obtained excessive payments from the government-funded program for seniors through questionable diagnostic documentation and billing methods.

Weak stock market development

All of these problems have left their mark on UnitedHealth shares. Since the beginning of the year, the share price has fallen by a remarkable 34.81 percent (as of November 28, 2025). For comparison: The S&P500, which reflects the broad US stock market, has jumped by 16.45 percent in the year to date.

Turnaround in 2026?

But the insurance company may now be leaving the valley of tears behind it, at least that’s what Keith Speights, a Motley Fool healthcare analyst, is betting on. He believes the dividend stock could skyrocket with a 3.4 percent yield in 2026.

On the one hand, he points out that in October 2025 the company management promised increasing growth for 2026. What’s optimistic about this is that Tim Noel, CEO of UnitedHealthcare, has announced “highly adjustable pricing” for his unit in 2026 – in other words, health insurance premiums will likely increase sharply to offset increased medical costs.

Second, UnitedHealthcare is also tightening its clinical review of guidelines. The company is moving to narrower networks, particularly with Medicare Advantage plans.

In addition, UnitedHealth is relying on the increased use of artificial intelligence to better control costs.

Although the DoJ investigation remains a factor of uncertainty, Keith Speights points out that the company has declared its full willingness to cooperate with the authorities, but at the same time has also expressed “full confidence in its practices.”

Editorial team finanzen.net

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