The San Francisco 49ers suffered a bitter setback against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas in the NFL. The reason for this was a large portion of bad luck, but a few fundamental deficits were also uncovered, which probably not everyone can exploit.
San Francisco 49ers: It was a freak game!
The long-awaited meeting of the currently best teams in the AFC and NFC on Christmas Eve could have been the final breakthrough for the 49ers. It was the only point that left them with any remaining doubts. Can they also dominate against a top team in the AFC? Two of their three losses up to that point came against teams from the AFC North – the Browns and Bengals in Weeks 6 and 8.
The short answer: No, they can’t! The Ravens were unimpressed by the Niners and made short work of them. And that too in the Field of Jeans. But one should be careful not to hang this gossip too high from San Francisco’s perspective. Yes, it came at the wrong time, namely at Christmas. And then also on national TV – ABC showed the game, not ESPN, where NBA was shown, which is a statement from the Disney company in itself, because the NBA Christmas Games are a tradition on American TV, but that’s just a minor matter, if King plays football too…
But if you look closely, there was also a lot of bad luck from the Niners’ perspective. After the game, the main talk was that the MVP Award could be decided here. Brock Purdy threw four interceptions, while Lamar Jackson not only threw two touchdown passes, but also occasionally made something positive out of nothing, Houdini-style. And as a result, the MVP is decided.
At least that’s the general opinion. And if Lamar beats the Dolphins in front of their home crowd on New Year’s Eve in Week 17 – can be seen live from 7 p.m. on NITRO – and thereby secures home field advantage in the AFC, then he will most likely win his second MVP make clear after 2019.
But you do Purdy an injustice if you reduce him to just his four picks, the most in his young career. According to PFF, Purdy only had two plays in the game that should have resulted in a turnover. The two deflected interceptions, however, were simply bad luck.
And even backup Sam Darnold’s late interception wasn’t his fault. So we’re talking about three interceptions that weren’t really self-inflicted. In these situations the opponent simply had the necessary luck. And that explains the clear 33:19 – if Darnold’s last pass was successful, San Francisco would have even reduced the deficit to one touchdown.
Although the Niners lost this game and thus missed what, on the face of it, was an important exclamation point, they remain the clear favorites in the NFC. And who knows what else will happen in January – and February.
San Francisco 49ers: Offensive line exposed
The turnovers were largely due to bad luck. But the Ravens clearly succeeded in exposing the 49ers’ deficits. One thing became particularly clear: the offensive line is not this team’s greatest strength. If you ignore left tackle Trent Williams, then we’re looking at a unit that isn’t necessarily one of the NFL’s elite.
Even Williams didn’t have a particularly good day against the Ravens and had to leave early with a groin injury during the second half. But at least he is still one of the top tackles in the league. “ESPN” has him with a pass block win rate of 96 percent, still the best value in the league. But the people next to him are faring much worse. As a team, they rank just 20th in pass blocking and even 21st in run blocking.
The point is that for much of the season this wasn’t particularly noticeable and didn’t matter. But the Ravens have a front seven that can take advantage of such problems. And it’s no coincidence that three of the four defeats have come against AFC North teams that are all well-stocked on the defensive front. In fact, one can argue that only the Ravens have a better front line than the Browns.
But back to the Ravens game: If you look at the entire O-line, four of the five starters each allowed more than 50 opportunities for pressure against the respective quarterback. Only Williams (19) appeared stable. In total, pressure came through 15 times against Purdy and ten times against Darnold in just 17 dropbacks. Both received two sacks.
But that’s not all, because the run game was also severely affected against Baltimore. Christian McCaffrey, the NFL rushing leader, only left the spot when it went to the left (Williams). Of his 103 rushing yards, 92 came from the left side. Runs in the other direction were rarely attempted, but that is probably due to the fact that five carries over the right and through the middle did not produce much profit.
When Williams had to go out early, there was basically nothing left on the floor.
San Francisco 49ers: Poor tackling will be punished
To disrupt the Niners offensively, all it took was disrupting Purdy’s rhythm and controlling the line. But the Ravens also played defense, mainly through the air.
The Niners had already had coverage problems last year. This year they had it largely under control. Against Baltimore, however, a few deficits became particularly clear. On the one hand, there is the weak coverage itself. Too many starters were in the picture too rarely. Only cornerback Ambry Thomas managed a single pass breakup in the entire game. Thomas was also the only one who caused forced incompletions (2) with his coverage.
Everyone else didn’t really bother the Ravens’ receivers. To make matters worse, we also had a weak day in tackling. And that from two players who are supposed to protect the middle.
In particular, the otherwise reliable linebacker Fred Warner was off his game and missed two tackles, one of which was in the passing game during a long reception. Safety Ji’Ayir Brown even missed three tackles and gave up a touchdown to the nearest defender. Jackson’s passer rating in his direction was 156.3!
With an average target depth of 12.5 yards, the latter even saw the second-deepest passes on his team. If other teams act so courageously against him, that could be a real weak point in this defense.
But here too you have to admit that not too many teams can play like that against the 49ers. Lamar Jackson averaged 3.22 seconds to pass. And he only needed two scrambles to do it, which suggests that the O-line in front of him did a very good job against the Niners’ strong pass rush. In addition, Jackson didn’t have a single big-time throw in the game according to “PFF”, but nothing that would have resulted in a turnover either.
He didn’t play that spectacularly, but he didn’t make any mistakes and still put his teammates in position to be successful. For the Niners, however, the conclusion should be that they still remain the top favorites in the NFC. But you should probably hope that, ideally, you won’t face the Ravens again in February. and if so, less bad luck than this time would definitely be helpful.
Marcus Blumberg