Remco, how is it possible that a faction itself closes a deal in August and now, four months later, decides whether it agrees with that deal?
‘In this case, that has to do with the figures released last week. On Monday, VVD spokesman Ruben Brekelmans said in the debate on the asylum budget that he ‘literally’ fell off his chair when State Secretary Van der Burg sent the new forecasts to the House. This showed that there will be more than 48 thousand first applications from asylum seekers this year and more than 50 thousand next year. That is more than in 2015, when the Syria crisis played out.
‘In the VVD there is a lot of pressure to take even more restrictive measures against the influx of asylum seekers. Brekelmans believes, among other things, that border controls should be intensified and harder work should be done on the outflow. Many opposition parties then say: that’s nice and nice, but these are not measures that will structurally reduce the influx. And when they ask him how much it should go down, there’s no answer.’
‘Of course there is also an electoral motive. Elections for the Provincial Council are coming up and the VVD is being closely followed by the PVV, Forum and JA21. It is a political craft to see how far you can go to get as close as possible to your own wishes and views. In that regard, I find it remarkable how quiet D66 remains. Also ChristenUnie, which has already had to swallow a heavy melon with the curtailment of family reunification, seems to think that the asylum law will be okay.’
What about the asylum law?
‘I see that the VVD has dug in very deeply after concluding the previous agreement, and is looking for a way out of this without losing face. The party is playing high game, in the expectation that there can still be a bit of plus on the asylum deal of August. And not by questioning the agreement itself, but by setting additional requirements next to it. So far, D66 and ChristenUnie have only said that they find it ‘painful’ or ‘ugly’ that the law is not yet in place.’
Why is Prime Minister Rutte involved in this?
‘That is indeed quite exceptional. Undoubtedly, it happens because the failure of the Asylum Act could lead to a cabinet crisis. If three parties, the responsible minister and presumably the cabinet want this deal, it cannot fail because of one faction.
‘Yesterday Brekelmans said that Rutte is coming to provide an explanation and explanation. They will probably be about what else the government plans to do. After that, it is up to the group to determine whether it agrees with commitments about policies that are yet to come. If the VVD continues to throw the ball around, the party will be taking a big risk four months before the elections to the Provincial Council.’
Why does the VVD feel such pressure to profile itself on this subject? The party rejects the policy of its own secretary of state.
‘Perhaps the party has learned from the previous cabinet term. At that time, too, this topic was a hot topic, with the same parties putting the VVD in front of the block to conclude a deal on a general pardon. Of course the VVD got things in return, but now it will want more by negotiating for as long as possible.
‘The VVD knows that these parties cannot let go of each other. The country is facing a war on the continent, an energy crisis, a climate crisis. Then you can’t make a fool of yourself by dropping a cabinet on asylum seekers.’
If the coalition does not reach an agreement on this, Van der Burg’s heavily negotiated agreement with municipalities and provinces is also worth little. Would the Secretary of State himself now and then become despondent from his job?
‘I don’t have that impression. On Monday afternoon, before the debate on his budget, he said there would be little solution if he left. After all, someone else would face the same challenges.
‘In addition, the departure of a minister can trigger an unpredictable dynamic. The classic division on this subject is CDA-VVD and D66-ChristenUnie, with the CDA having one wing that leans towards the other camp. In itself, Van der Burg fulfills a good bridging function between the VVD and the other parties.’