The shock that the Prime Minister experienced Pedro Sanchezwhose government represents the Spanish Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE) in alliance with Can, it can become much more than a call for attention. It may open the door to a broader coalition of conservatives in the People’s Party (PP) with voxof the extreme right, with the aim of winning the next elections in the entire territory of the Iberian Peninsula. The PP already governs Castilla y León with Vox and the hypothesis is that this alliance will expand.
That is one of the reasons why Sánchez announced the day after the municipal and regional elections, the dissolution of the parliament in Spain and the call for early voting for July 23, which is what Spanish law establishes: they must elapse 54 days between both events.
A risky political move, it is a consequence of the results obtained on Sunday, May 28, when the conservatives won in more than half of the twelve most populated cities in the country. The PP obtained 31.5% of the votes, while the PSOE obtained 28.2%. The conservatives they were left with the victory even in some districts in which the PSOE had previously won, such as Seville, Valencia and Aragón.
But, and even when the Popular Party candidates won in most Spanish cities, the common denominator is that in general they did not manage to obtain absolute majorities. Seize control of town halls across the country will require the center-right party to establish coalitions or government pacts with the far-right party Vox. That doubled their percentage of local councilors to 7.2%, which means that they will have a significant influence on the policies of the cities where the PP will need their votes.
The day after
If the PP won more than seven million votes (two million more than in the 2019 elections9, Sánchez’s party went from 6.6 million votes to 6.2 on Sunday, May 28. In televised statements from the Moncloa Palace, the official residence of Spain’s head of government, Sánchez took personal responsibility for his party’s poor results in the municipal elections. The decision to summon early general election It is bold for the Prime Minister, who is already in office for four years at the helm of the first coalition government in the country’s history. He will have very little time to improve the indices that most concern the Spanish: inflation rate and drop in employment rates.
Meanwhile, the alliances on the right They follow a path that was already being traced. In Andalusia, for example, Juanma Moreno (PP) was in charge of a minority government, backed by the extreme right. Already in 2022, the official mentioned the possibility of having to further align himself with Vox to maintain control and the consequence is that he has been re-elected president of the Junta de Andalucía with an absolute majority. Also on Sunday Isabel Diaz Ayusothe president of the PP of Madrid, was re-elected in the community of Madrid and maintains majority control of the regional parliament by allying with right-wing extremists.
hurry and risks
Sánchez’s overtaking strategy is also risky for his allies of the left. This entire process could mark the beginning of a return to bipartisanship dominated by the PSOE and the PP. During the last decade, smaller parties like Can and the centrist citizens they had influential roles, but in the current scenario they may struggle to reach 5% of the vote to qualify for representation in many regions. In fact, Ciudadanos announced that it will not run in the July elections and from the PP they are rubbing their hands in the hope that those votes (although minority ones) will go to the right.
For most of this year, Podemos has been at odds with the new Sumar movement, led by Yolanda Díaz, Spain’s current labor minister. So much so that in the elections at the end of May there were split ballots: the result was bad for both, Podemos was eliminated from several regional parliaments and Díaz’s allies underperformed.
However, the advance of the conservatives in alliance with the extreme right seems to be helping to put aside the minor differences. Shortly after Sánchez made her announcement, Díaz said she was ready for the challenge of resolving differences between left-wing parties to defeat “black Spain” on the right. “The message received in the elections was very clear: things have to be done differently. No distractions,” she tweeted. The general secretary of Podemos, Ione Belarra, responded by announcing the immediate opening of negotiations with Sumar to reach an agreement.
Meanwhile, time is running out. Spain’s electoral law states that coalition parties must register within 10 days of the dissolution of parliament.
As if all this were not enough, it must be taken into account that holding the national elections at the end of July also adds challenges more linked to the very willingness of citizens to vote. A large number of Spanish they will be on vacation and it is not clear how many of them will be willing to go home to vote. If recent summers are any indication, Spaniards will also be voting amid another deadly and prolonged heat wave, and at a time when forest fires often ravage the interior of the country. Participation could be greatly affected by any of these factors and be decisive for the outcome.
Image gallery
