Not long ago, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the actual ruler in Saudi Arabia, was still an international pariah. World leaders would rather not be seen with the man who would have commissioned the brutal murder of the critical journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
But today the relationships are different. All eyes are focused on Mohammed Bin Salman (‘MBS’) and ‘his’ Saudi Arabia this week, which functions as a host country for the negotiations between the United States and Russia about the war in Ukraine. On Monday, MBS received the American foreign minister Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergej Lavrov in Riad. Ukraine is not invited to the negotiations that start this Tuesday.
It is a role that MBS likes to measure itself: as a peacemaker and important player on the world stage. The time in which he was known as an inexperienced and reckless leader – who collapsed his country in a devastating war in Yemen and reportedly held the Prime Minister of Lebanon as a hostage – he hopes to leave behind forever.
All -man
Earlier it was considered to have the negotiations take place in the United Arab Emirates: an American ally who maintains good relations with Russia. But that the choice fell on Saudi Arabia is no coincidence.
Mohammed Bin Salman does his best to put his country on the map as a everyone’s friend and conflict mediator. The Gulf state is an ally of the United States and maintains good ties with both Ukrainian President VolodyMyr Zensky and Vladimir Putin van Russia. Severe times, Saudi Arabia in recent years, for that reason, in the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia and between the US and Russia.
“We know the crown prince,” said US President Donald Trump last week about the choice for Saudi Arabia as a host country. “I think it’s a very good place for it.” Last month, MBS was the first foreign leader with whom Trump called after his inaugaration. The Saudi crown prince promised to invest 600 billion dollars in the US for the next four years.
At the same time, Russia and Saudi Arabia have caught the ties since the start of the war in Ukraine and the first Western sanctions against Russia. For example, Riad doubled his import of Russian fuel oil when other importers failed. As a result, the Gulf state had to refine less from its own crude oil and could export more. The countries together also try to keep the price of oil on the international mark artificially high.
Gaza
Less easy for Crown Prince Bin Salman is the other subject that the American delegation wants to address during the visit to Riad: the future of Gaza. The Saudi kingdom was forced to speak out against Trump’s plan to take over the area and to turn off its Palestinian residents. Foreign Minister Rubio is now expecting an alternative plan from ‘MBS’ and other Arabic leaders.
According to various media, that plan is now in the making. There would be a plan from Egyptian tube on the table, where Palestinians can stay in Gaza but Hamas is sidelined. The Arab countries concerned hope that Mohammed Bin Salman can use his good relationship with Trump to embrace the Americans the alternative plan.
There is also a lot at stake for MBS itself. The Saudis felt in their shirts in recent months because Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu repeatedly suggested that Saudi Arabia-despite the war in Gaza-would normal or later normalize diplomatic ties with Israel.
Before Hamas’ attack on Israel of 7 October, an agreement between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States still seemed imminent. In addition, the Arab kingdom would start diplomatic ties with Israel in exchange for a defense agreement with the Americans and help setting up a nuclear energy program.
The war in Gaza brought those negotiations to a standstill. As in almost the entire Arab world, the ongoing violence and the tens of thousands of Palestinian dead led to anger among the Saudi population. Just the rumor that Saudi Arabia would talk to the Israelis behind closed doors is harmful to the reputation of the royal family.
‘The rotten’
Reason enough for MBS to give the foundation of a Palestinian state as a condition for normalizing relations with Israel. Only that prospect with regard to the Netanyahu government is not at all.
The fact that Netanyahu joked on Israeli TV earlier this month that there is also plenty of room within Saudi Arabia for creating a Palestinian state, was very bad with the Saudis. In response, Riad launched a remarkably fierce campaign against Netanyahu in Saudi state media. Television channel Al Achbaria spoke of a “Zionist and the son of a Zionist […] That extremism has been given in his genes. ” Government -minded analysts also called the Israeli Prime Minister on social media ‘Nat’n Yahu’ (De Vrotte), a play on his name in Arabic.
A paria is no longer MBS, but the world is not feasible for the Saudi crown prince. In their recent statements, both Trump and Netanyahu seem to hint that the war could just be continued. In that case, normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be completely gone for the time being.