The shortage of nurses, elderly care workers and other healthcare workers will increase even faster in the next ten years than previously predicted. In 2033, there is an expected shortage of 240,000 employees – a significant adjustment from last year’s forecast, when a shortage of 195,000 employees was still discussed.
This is evident from one letter which Minister Fleur Agema of Health, Welfare and Sport (PVV) sent to the House of Representatives on Monday. The shortages are increasing in all sectors, but are especially felt in nursing homes and home care. The shortage in hospitals is also expected to increase relatively quickly in the coming years.
The figures come from research agency ABF Research, which annually analyzes the increasing labor shortage in the healthcare sector. The deficit in 2033 will be approximately 45 thousand higher than last year’s estimate.
The reason for this is, among other things, that labor productivity is lower than expected. Absenteeism also remains high; Contrary to expectations, the decline that was visible after the corona pandemic did not continue. On the other hand, the number of people requiring care is only increasing due to an aging population.
Pain point
In the base year 2023, the shortage was almost 44 thousand employees. That number is expected to increase rapidly in the coming years. From 2030 onwards, the expected shortage will even increase annually by more than 25 thousand employees. If current trends continue, a shortage of almost 266 thousand employees is expected in 2034.
In the letter to Parliament, Agema calls it “unthinkable that we should let this take its course.” To avert the impending shortage, the government wants, among other things, to halve administration time by using artificial intelligence. At the same time, according to the minister, it is “not realistic” that the deficit “can be completely resolved within the foreseeable future.”
The figures represent a new sore point for Agema’s ministry, which is being blamed for part of the reversed cuts to education. Out of outrage over the announced reduction in training for medical staff, several interest groups announced this week that they would no longer participate in negotiations on the healthcare agreement.
The House of Representatives’ healthcare committee will debate with ministers on Thursday about labor market policy in healthcare.