The president of the Junta de Andalucía and leader of the Popular Party (PP) in this autonomous community, Juanma Moreno, would win the Andalusian elections if they were held today and to govern I would only need the abstention from vox.
This is highlighted by a survey of Sigma Two published today by the newspaper El Mundo, which points out that the PP, with between 48 and 49 seats, would be only six deputies short of the absolute majority, set at 55, and, therefore, the abstention of the party led by Santiago Abascal would suffice to carry out the investiture, since the sum of all the parties on the left, including the PSOE, is 43 deputies.
The Popular Party of Andalusia would obtain 36.9% of the votes, and in seats it would almost double those obtained in 2018, when it obtained 20.8% of the ballots and 26 deputies.
The socialist Juan Espadas it would remain more than 10 points behind the PP, with 26.7% of the votes and between 32 and 33 seats, which means practically repeating the results obtained in 2018 by Susana Díaz, who won 33 seats and 28% of the votes.
According to this survey published by El Mundo, Vox would be the third political force in Andalusia after the collapse of Ciudadanos.
In this way, I would record a moderate percentage increase in votes of 2.6 points, up to 13.6% of the ballots, and between 13 and 15 seats, compared to the 12 it obtained in 2012.
Santiago Abascal’s party has not decided who will head the list and the survey asks about who is currently its parliamentary spokesman, Manuel Gavira.
For its part, the orange formation that leads John Marin lose 12 points and it goes from 21 deputies to between 3 and 4 parliamentarians.
Thus, with the sum of Citizens’ deputies, The Government of Juanma Moreno would be in a maximum of 53 seats, only two from the absolute majority.
United We Can would get 7 or 8 deputies, while Adelante Andalucía, the electoral mark of Teresa Rodríguez, would add 2.
The platform Andalusians stand up, which includes Más País Andalucía, would not have parliamentary representation.
These last three candidates obtained together in 2018, under the candidacy of Adelante Andalucía, 17 deputies, and now all of them separately would lose between seven and eight parliamentarians, adding between 9 and 10.
The survey has been prepared by Sigma Dos with interviews to 3,404 people, residents of Andalusia, between December 14, 2021 and January 10, 2022. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7%.