The Maduro regime has been decapitated, but not eliminated: what will the army do now?

By capturing and kidnapping Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro during a nighttime military attack, US President Donald Trump has won an important trophy in what he calls the fight against ‘narcoterrorists’. The extensive Venezuelan diaspora is cheering over Maduro’s arrest and will remain grateful to Trump for a long time to come.

But in the longer term, the US is also taking a huge risk with this operation. Whether the oil-rich South American country will soon become a democracy again is highly unpredictable. It could also descend into instability and internal strife. And if this triggers a new flow of refugees, it would also have major consequences for South American neighboring countries, including the very nearby Dutch kingdoms of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.

The chavista regime, which Maduro led for almost thirteen years, has now been decapitated, but not eliminated. In recent years, Maduro and the top of the socialist PSUV have strengthened their grip on the country with increasing domestic repression. Elections were still held, but the regime only managed to ‘win’ them with a combination of ballot box fraud and the distribution of food parcels.

Army, gangs, guerrillas

Now Maduro and the influential primera dama Cilia Flores seems to be on her way to an American cell, the big question is what the Venezuelan army will do. The officer class of these so-called Bolivarian armed forces – named after the legendary South American liberator Simón Bolívar – has been able to enrich itself in recent years through the smuggling of illegally mined gold and drugs. The army leadership was able to effectively quell dissatisfaction in the lower ranks about the state of the country.

In addition to these regular armed forces, Chavismo has for years relied heavily on its own armed forces, so-called colectivos of armed young men on motorcycles intimidating the population. They are held responsible for actions, especially in poorer working-class neighborhoods, when the population dared to take to the streets against the regime or the general malaise. According to an eyewitness in Caracas that NRC via voice messages via WhatsApp, these colectivos immediately started patrolling on the night from Friday to Saturday.

Several leaders of the PSUV could temporarily succeed Maduro as president. This includes Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge, the Speaker of Parliament. Delcy demanded on Saturday from the US that they would “immediately give a sign of life” of Maduro and his wife, whose whereabouts she called “unknown.”

Another potential successor is Díosdado Cabello, the powerful Minister of the Interior who is responsible, among other things, for setting up Venezuela’s Cuban-style police state. Or Vladimir Padrino, the defense minister, a crucial link between the government and the armed forces. He immediately warned in an initial response on Saturday that Venezuela will resist a potential invasion by foreign troops.

It is uncertain whether there will be a role for the Venezuelan opposition. Prominent dissidents have been silenced, imprisoned or exiled one by one in recent years. The main opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has been abroad since she collected the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to her in Oslo last month.

Oil, geopolitics and distraction

Trump apparently took the risks of a violent aftermath for granted when he ordered this operation a few days ago. His White House apparently viewed the benefits of Maduro’s removal as greater. The US accuses Maduro of heading the so-called Sun Cartel and placed a $50 million tip on his head last year.

Although Trump has presented his campaign against Venezuela as an anti-narcotics operation since last summer, he also seemed to be focused on regime change in Caracas from the start. The motives for this seem manifold: oil, geopolitics and seeking distraction from domestic problems (the ongoing Epstein dossier and the persistent economic dissatisfaction among many American citizens).

Zoom in

Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but production has collapsed rapidly due to corruption and socialist mismanagement since the beginning of this century. Until they were unilaterally nationalized under former president Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), American oil companies always made good money from their exploitation. Under a more American-oriented government, they might regain greater access to these fields. The US Gulf Coast has many refineries that are ideally equipped to process the typical heavy Venezuelan oil.

In addition, it had been a thorn in Washington’s side for years that Venezuela was developing into a Chinese, Russian and Iranian bridgehead in South America. Great rival China in particular grew into an important ally of Venezuela. The bond between the two socialist one-party states is not only ideological: China currently buys most of Venezuela’s oil. Caracas charges a favorable price for this in order to pay off the loans that Beijing provided when the Venezuelan economy began to succumb to scarcity and hyperinflation from 2015 onwards.

In the new National Security Strategy that the Trump administration published at the end of last year, the Western Hemisphere is once again claimed as the exclusive sphere of influence of the US. It denies countries from outside the hemisphere “the ability to deploy troops or other threatening capabilities” in the region, as well as “to possess or control strategically critical assets.” The latter read mainly as an admonition to China.

Hours before the US attacked on Friday night, a senior Chinese envoy was visiting Caracas. According to Maduro’s office, the meeting was intended “to confirm the unbreakable character of the brotherhood between Caracas and Beijing.” It would also turn out to be Maduro’s last official statement as president.

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