The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) will announce this Friday, at 1:30 p.m., its opinion barometer for the month of March, whose field work was carried out after the outbreak of the ‘Mediator case’ and with the coalition government in crisis for the law of ‘only yes is yes’.
The CIS interviews, some 4,000 in each barometer, are carried out the first ten days of each month and, in the case of March, they were carried out when the activities of the former socialist deputy became known. Juan Bernardo Fuentes Curbelo and his attendance at dinners of the ‘Mediator plot’ with other deputies, meetings that on occasion ended in drug use and prostitution. The deputy known as ‘Tito Berni’ He was forced to leave the seat on February 14 and the following week he was arrested in the course of a search at his home.
In those days, moreover, the coalition government was going through its worst moments in recent months after the initiative promoted by the PSOE to modify the sexual freedom law or law of ‘only yes is yes’, in view of the penalty reductions that had been produced in the previous months. This reform passed the first stage of Congress on March 7 and was taken into consideration with a vote against United We Can. The division between the members of the Executive was reflected the following day in the demonstrations of the Women’s Day.
The PP, ahead in direct vote
Before these episodes occurred, in the February barometer, the CIS continued to place the PSOE with a vote estimate of 32.1% and an advantage of 2.3 points over the PP, for which support was estimated at 29.8%. Third place was once again for United We Can, which lost steam, falling point and a half in a month, from 14.2% in January to 12.7% in February. behind followed voxagain with 10% in the CIS, the same as the previous month, although in the 2019 generals it was the third game with 15%.
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Of course, for the second consecutive month, the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo was placed ahead of the PSOE of Pedro Sanchez in direct intention to vote (vote without ‘kitchen’). In other words, when asked who the Spaniards would vote for if elections were held tomorrow, the PP repeated in February with more committed voters than the PSOE: 22.7% compared to 22.1%.
The direct intention to vote is relevant given that the February survey included other questions in which 61.6% of those surveyed assured that they decide their vote long before the electoral campaign and that 39.4% always or almost always vote for the same party, compared to 53.5% who decide in each electoral process.