On Friday, the negotiations on a new Belgian government still hung for hours on a thread. But just before the expiry of his formator assignment, Formateur Bart De Wever, leader of the New Flemish Alliance, offered the national administrative plan to King Filip. With this agreement reached on a new federal government, the election outcome of 9 June was finally sealed.
With this history is written. For the first time, the so-called ‘Arizona coalition’ gets federal administrative power: a government at national level. The coalition consists of the conservative Flemish nationalists of N-VA, the French-speaking Liberals (MR), the Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V), the French-speaking center party Les Engagés and the Flemish Socialists Vooruit.
The collaboration is called Coalition Arizona as alley on the political colors of the government parties, which are equal to the colors in the flag of the US state of Arizona: yellow, orange, blue and red. The parties are already holding ‘accession conferences’ this weekend where the members of the parties can comment on government participation. Vooruit does this this Saturday, the other parties on Sunday.
Together the parties have 81 seats and therefore a large majority in the 150-person room. The upcoming government parties reflect the current boards in the Flemish government (consisting of N-VA, Vooruit and CD&V) and those in the Walloon Region and the French Community (with MR and Les Engagés as coalition partners). But they don’t really speak each other’s language. In 2019-2020, an earlier attempt to form a government with the Arizona coalition stranded.
Too many left -wing gifts
“The formation does not deserve applause,” says Carl Devos, professor of political sciences at Ghent University. A sense of ‘relief’ now prevails. But Devos also has great worries: “The group has not become a team: that makes the stability of the new cabinet uncertain.”
In the recent negotiating marathons, which were up to 32 hours, the same major socio-economic themes remained the subject of discussion for months. The bottlenecks? The reform of pensions, unemployment benefits and the tax system. Migration was also disputed, and in the last hours it was still about abortion, where there are strong opposite visions between CV&V and N-VA on the one hand and MR and Vooruit on the other.
On Friday afternoon, MR chairman Georges-Louis Bouchez rejected the compromise text. There were still too many left -wing gifts in it, was the tenor at the French -speaking liberals. Vooruit, the only pronounced left party in the coalition, has a socialist supporters who find many of the plans to the right.
The figures miss credibility: every budget control can lead to a crisis
Cutbacks
Like other European countries, Belgium needs extra money for defense and safety – and must also save considerably. The Belgian gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to 585 billion euros in 2023, with a joint government deficit of 27 billion euros. That debt, 4.6 percent of GDP, is too high, says the EU.
“It is five past twelve, the basement has been flooded,” says political scientist Devos. According to him, the required socio-economic reforms have not been released since the 1990s. The size is full for the European Commission. In 2030, the current budget deficit must have been reduced from Belgium to 3 percent of GDP.
To achieve that, around 23 billion euros must be cut. The central reform plans, which are known as the ‘Supernota’, caused national protests in recent weeks. Among other things, public transport and education were stopped, scared and angry about ‘pension robbery’.
In the new plans there is less pension to who stops working for the statutory retirement age. The age limit for retirement is raised in certain professional groups and the civil servant’s pension – the so -called ‘favor regime’ – is being phased out. Wage costs for companies are reduced.
The labor market focuses more on flexibility and reducing the number of people in the long -term sickness law. Moreover, the ‘strongest shoulders’ have to wear more. Investors who earn more than 10,000 euros per year in shares must pay 10 percent ‘capital gain tax’ on listed shares and other financial assets. Anyone who sells a significant interest in a non-listed company is taxed from an added value of 1 million euros. Between 1 and 10 million euros, the tax increases to 10 percent. In addition, a rate of 10 percent applies.
According to professor Devos, the budget work is “the Achilles heel of Arizona”. This is agreed by Dave Sinardet, political scientist at the Free University of Brussels: “The Supernota juggles with payback effects. It is obvious that they are not all going to be there. ” Devos: “The figures miss credibility: every budget control can lead to a crisis.”
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Ultimate Belgians
According to Devos, the world record holder Formations-Belgium was already 541 days without a missionary government in 2010-2011-stands for a ‘tough assignment’. He warns of a “semantic battle” now that the agreement is there, where each party explains the content of the agreement in its own way.
There is not yet clarity about the exact portfolio distribution. Although it is certain that Formateur Bart De Wever gets the key to ‘Wetstraat 16’, the Belgian equivalent of the Torentje, located in Brussels. This gives Belgium a Flemish nationalist prime minister for the first time in its history, who has the split of the country in the party mates.
“The ultimate Belgian mop,” says political scientist Devos. But, he adds: “Many N-VA voters support the party because of the message that the country should be remediated, not because of the Flemish nationalist agenda.” He laughs, referring to the Belgian surrealist painter René Magritte: “It is” Ceci N’est pas une pipe “.