Beijing and Washington are teetering on the brink of another Taiwan crisis over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plan to hit Taiwan. The US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, with an entourage of helicopters, fighter jets, missiles and anti-missile weapons, is steaming through the South China Sea toward Taiwan as one of the “overlapping rings of protection” around Pelosi that the Pentagon is building in view of its Asia-Pacific campaign. travel preparation.
In the Chinese province of Fujian, near Taiwan, a force majeure of fighter jets and drones is ready. One drone would have flown around Taiwan on Thursday, another took a look at an island in the far north of Taiwan. They are pinpricks, to see where the holes in the Taiwanese air defense are.
Risk of accidents
The annual simulations of an invasion are also in full swing on Taiwan. The political turmoil surrounding Pelosi’s intended visit, combined with a concentration of weapons and troops in a small area, increases the risk of accidents, miscalculations and overreaction on the part of all parties. According to US defense sources, Chinese military personnel are behaving increasingly recklessly and it is only a matter of time until the Chinese maneuvers result in an incident.
On Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his American counterpart Joe Biden in a video call of more than two hours that he is “playing with fire”. Beijing sees such a visit as an infringement of Chinese sovereignty, because according to China Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic, which will be brought under Chinese rule by force if necessary. At what point Xi will actually go out of business is unpredictable. According to China watchers sifting through Chinese rhetoric on terms Beijing has used to announce military operations in the past, the verbal alarm stage has not yet reached the highest level.
One-China Policy
Biden reassured Xi about the One China policy, which has prevented tensions over Taiwan from reaching boiling point in recent decades. In 1979, the US recognized the Socialist People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of China. The US also took the Chinese claim to Taiwan for notice at the time. That is not the same as consent, although Beijing likes to present it that way.
The One China policy still applies, said Biden, who in recent months has been confusing with pledges to defend Taiwan. Under Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump, the US broke with unwritten rules of the One China policy, for example by sending senior government officials to Taiwan.
While the Americans say they are responding to the increasing Chinese military pressure on the island, China suspects them of giving Taiwan a push towards formal independence with these steps. This shaky status quo of mutual salami tactics threatens to become further out of balance due to Pelosi’s travel plan.
awkward moment
That itinerary comes at an inconvenient time. Not so much because Xi is on a political venture to land a third term; if he has that in his pocket, Xi will not think more leniently about American support for Taiwan, on the contrary. More importantly, Pelosi and her delegation of fellow Democratic and Republican congressmen have only more of the same to offer Taiwan: statements of support that suggest more military involvement than the US has for Taiwan, but meanwhile are pushing Beijing into the curtains to the point that Xi almost feels compelled to issue a stronger military signal.
For example, with larger-scale military exercises than usual to test the modernization of the Chinese army, said Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on Chinese defense at Stanford University. In addition to solid investments in the weapons arsenal, Xi has implemented sweeping reforms in the chain of command. “The Chinese have more faith in weapons than in their people. To see whether the troops can handle complicated operations, they have been looking for a reason to practice amphibious landings for some time,’ says Skylar Mastro.
“The time when Beijing is capable of a successful invasion of Taiwan is getting closer. For the first time, China has the capabilities, while the US is currently incapable of guaranteed repelling a Chinese invasion,” said Skylar Mastro. Recent US war simulations around Taiwan show that the US has too few military bases in Asia and only stands a good chance of winning the battle if Asian allies join the fight.
American division
But the delicate process of getting Japan and other allies to become more involved in the defense of Taiwan has been slow to move. Thus, the squabbling in Washington over Pelosi’s plan mainly exposes the American division with regard to Taiwan.
All the more reason for Xi to flex his muscles to the US’s Asian allies, Skylar Mastro fears. Why would Xi risk waiting for the US to mobilize its allies? After all, he learns from the war in Ukraine that hitting hard and quickly is crucial before international aid is given to the opposing party.’