Australia is a clear underdog in Huelva, but still interesting in betting.
Spain’s Irene Paredes sliding the ball against Scotland. AOP
The most interesting game of the day
For Midsummer’s Day, interest will be gained in women’s football, when Spain, one of the favorites in the European Championships, will face Australia for the first time in its history.
The Spanish exchange rate has been rising strongly in recent seasons. Long-term work has been done with the national team and little by little the team has matured and is able to challenge just about everyone. La Roja has not lost a game since March 2020, when the US was 1-0 better. During the pipeline, Spain has taken on some of the top countries. It has won a tough Canada this year and played draws with the Yankees, England and Germany. In other words, even against an absolute peak, Spain has been able to perform without losses.
La Roja plays strong through Ball Control and wants to advance with passing combinations. It is worth turning your gaze to the more experienced midfield Alexia Putellascaptain Irene Paredesiin and a very promising and, above all, hard scorer, Amaiur Sarriegiin.
Australia is a regular visitor to the Games – of course, getting to the Games from Oceania / Asia has been a degree simpler. The team is preparing for the Asian Championships in the Philippines. Australia plays more straightforward and physical football than Spain.
In the middle, you will find experience and features suitable for the way of playing briskly Emily van Egmondin and Tameka Yallopin with. The team’s legendary scorer Sam Kerr has finished, so perhaps Matildas ’biggest question mark is with the finish – can there be a finisher to fill Kerri’s huge boots? Meanwhile, the team’s downstairs is quite inexperienced – if you count out the defensive leader Clare Polkinghorne as well as a goalkeeper Lydia Williams. Australia typically plays in a 4-3-3 format.
In a match to be played in Huelva, Spain is guaranteed to take control of the Ball and tightly control the flow of the game. La Roja, who is attacking from a 4-3-3 form against Brazil, for example, held the ball with almost 70%.
In the Fifa rankings, Spain is seventh and Australia five places lower, but I don’t think that format tells the difference in level between the teams, as I currently consider Spain to be better and Australia to be slightly weaker. In addition to this, Australia is likely to use rotation in Huelva as well.
More about the match’s betting ideas below. The match starts at 22:30.
The best bet of the day
The best thing about a quiet draw day is this match between Spain and Australia, where the market has moved really hard towards the hosts. Yes, La Roja is a clear favorite in his own papers as well, but it seems to be a bit that the home win has gained support unnecessarily.
The home advantage as well as stronger material and the vibe of recent months will make Spain three times out of four a winning favorite. However, La Roja has never really been any scoring machine that crushes the world’s top 15 teams. At the same time, Australia’s strengths are, above all, at the head of the defense.
The finish expectation of the encounter is just under three dumplings, so here too I think the market has slightly overestimated the chances of an “over”. There is a multiplier of 1.94 for less than three goals, for which I give an estimate of 53%, ie a limit factor of 1.89. A small advantage, but still.
Slightly more advantage can be found in the direction of Veikkaus’ Asian leveling. Australia +2, ie with a loss of two goals, the bet will be refunded and with a better result, the odds will be 1.77. My estimate for this event is 59 percent, with a cut-off factor of 1.69.
In my own decision process, the expectation value must rise to 1.05 in order for me to invest in the target. In this case, there is little left below that limit, so Matildas doesn’t quite stand out as an official hint, but a “strong recommendation” to the destination is worth giving.
Games of the day: No game
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