While the financial world eagerly awaits what could be the largest IPO in history, a prominent investor surprises with a completely different forecast.
• Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya predicts SpaceX won’t do a traditional IPO
• Chamath expects a reverse merger of SpaceX into Tesla to consolidate Musk’s assets
• Such a structure could also include Neuralink and The Boring Company
Palihapitiya’s contrarian bet
The rumor mill about a SpaceX IPO has been simmering for months. Elon Musk himself confirmed corresponding reports on December 10, 2025: On platform According to Bloomberg, the space company is planning an IPO in mid-to-late 2026 with a targeted valuation of around $1.5 trillion, which would make SpaceX the most valuable IPO in history.
As usual, Eric is accurate
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
But venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya sees a different future for the company. In the episode of the All-In Podcast broadcast on January 10, 2026, he made a contrary forecast: SpaceX will not go through with a traditional IPO, but will instead merge with Tesla as part of a reverse merger. As revealed in the podcast, Palihapitiya does not believe in a SpaceX IPO and instead expects a reverse merger into Tesla. Musk will use this moment to consolidate control of his two most important assets into a single capital structure.
The vision of a Musk holding company
Co-host and angel investor Jason Calacanis reacted enthusiastically to the thesis in the podcast. He pointed out that Musk has been talking for years about a holding company that could unite not only Tesla and SpaceX, but also Neuralink and The Boring Company under one roof.
The idea of such a structure would have far-reaching strategic implications. Tesla as a hardware and robotics platform, SpaceX with Starlink as a communication nervous system and xAI as artificial intelligence could form an integrated ecosystem. For Musk personally, a consolidation would also make it much easier to control his corporate empire.
Contradiction with Musk’s own statements
Palihapitiya himself admits that his forecast represents a deliberately contrarian position. It is in direct contradiction to Musk’s public statements: the SpaceX founder expressly confirmed reports of IPO plans at the beginning of December 2025. According to Bloomberg, the company wants to raise more than 30 billion US dollars – including for the expansion of AI capacities and space-based data centers.
In addition, Palihapitiya has already made a false prediction regarding Musk companies in the past: He had predicted an IPO of the Starlink satellite service in 2023, which has not yet taken place. It remains to be seen whether his current thesis is based on insider knowledge or is pure speculation.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net
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