As geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices, the question is becoming central to whether this cost pressure will provide the decisive impetus for the breakthrough of e-mobility.
• High gasoline prices improve cost comparisons in favor of electric cars
• Studies see EV demand rising with prolonged oil price shock
• For EV stocks, battery profitability remains the key factor
Rising oil prices are a massive burden for a wide range of industries. Shares in the travel sector, such as airlines but also TUI, Carnival & Co., are particularly suffering from the price increase, but consumers are also feeling the effects of the high prices – including, but not only, at gas stations. If private household budgets come under such pressure, this could also dampen overall new car sales – to the detriment of the traditional automotive industry.
Are electric cars now becoming more attractive?
In this environment, electric vehicles are rapidly becoming more financially attractive. MarketWatch points out that gasoline prices in the U.S. rose 9 percent in a week alone, while the cost of charging electric cars at public stations remained largely stable, according to AAA data. Andrew Garberson, head of growth and research at Recurrent, an electric vehicle data tracking company, said in an email that affordability was already the key theme for 2026 and recent events will only reinforce that trend, according to the report.
JET Charge: More EV sales possible in six months
JET Charge, an Australian company that plans, supplies and installs charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs), also comes to the conclusion in a study that electric cars could be among the winners in the current market environment – but not in a timely manner. According to the findings, car buyers would typically wait to see whether high fuel prices persist before switching to an electric vehicle, the experts were quoted as saying in an Australian Broadcasting Corporation article. A six-month, sustained price shock is the threshold for influencing purchasing decisions.
According to the portal, JET Charge modeled scenarios with an increase in global oil prices of 30 to 50 percent over a period of 6 to 18 months. The forecasts suggest that this could increase sales of electric vehicles by an additional 10 percent during this period.
The jump in oil prices could certainly revive interest in electric vehicles, as the operation of vehicles with conventional drives becomes less economical in direct comparison.
Industry is already showing initial reactions
The industry is already reacting to the changing signs. According to MarketWatch, Tesla has already introduced cheaper variants of its Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. While 2026 was originally predicted to be a difficult year for EV sales due to expiring tax credits, skyrocketing oil prices are now acting as an unexpected boon for electric vehicle sellers.
EV stocks a buy now?
Against this background, the question arises for investors as to whether shares in electric car manufacturers will become interesting again. However, investors have to weigh things up carefully: While the increasing interest in EVs is fueling sales growth, the aggressive price cuts – as recently seen at Tesla – are putting pressure on profit margins. The crucial question for 2026 is therefore which manufacturers can reduce battery production costs quickly enough to remain profitable despite lower sales prices. Anyone who masters this economies of scale could emerge from the current consolidation phase as long-term winners.
From an investor’s perspective, the Tesla share has some catching up to do anyway: the share on the NASDAQ has lost around 12.2 percent of its value over the course of the year so far, but at its most recent price of $395.01 (closing price on March 12, 2026), it is now trading close to the average price target of $399.25 assigned by analysts.
The margin issue is not only relevant for Tesla, its Chinese rival BYD is also facing the challenge of maintaining profitability despite global expansion. Meanwhile, the 2026 company has so far been just as unconvincing on the stock market as its US competitor, even if investors in Hong Kong have a slight increase in their portfolios.
Meanwhile, Rivian has a pretty good chance with the imminent launch of the mass-market R2 model – as long as the scaling is successful. Investors are particularly hoping for this with a view to the share price, because since the beginning of the year Rivian shares on the NASDAQ have fallen by around 22.4 percent to most recently 15.30 US dollars (closing price on March 12, 2026). Analysts at least see upside potential: On TipRanks, the average price target is $17.45, well above the current price level.
Basically, the entire EV stock sector in March remains a bet on cost efficiency. Whoever exploits the economies of scale of battery production most quickly will benefit most from the “oil price blessing”. However, investors should carefully examine whether a price increase is based solely on short-term sales effects through discounts or on a sustainable improvement in the cost structure.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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