Senate agrees with Trumps Tax Plan, for Republicans that is a large electoral risk

The most important legislative project of the Trump government has taken an important hurdle on Tuesday. It cost the necessary political drama, printing internally Republican arm, dozens of votes about amendments and three days of continuous debate, but in the end the senate narrowly agreed with the so -called One Big, Beautiful Bill.

The proposal now goes back to the House of Representatives, which took on one voice difference last month. The latter, definitive mood, is also in danger of becoming exciting again, because Trumps party only has a wafer -thin majority. Republican senators also made adjustments that increase the already high US government deficit (more than 6 percent). For proponents of a tight budget in the house, this can still be a reason to turn against it.

No Democrat supported the proposal in the Senate on Tuesday, and three Republican senators voted against. Rand Paul from Kentucky found the lack of budget discipline a problem, Susan Collins from Maine and Thom Tillis from North Carolina Laaked the cuts on social services. With that, the voices, with 50 against 50, after which Vice President JD Vance was allowed to cast the decisive vote in his double role as Senate President.

The budget and tax plan is called the “reverse Robin Hood” law by critics, because it leads to an enormous transfer of lifestyle from the poorest part of the population to the richest. Among other things, it extends the tax reductions that Trump made in his first term, which in particular benefit the richest and large companies. These are becoming permanent.

The account of that gigantic burden lighting ($ 4,500 billion in the next ten years) is mainly passed on to the poorest Americans, of whom millions lose their health insurance, and assistance through the food voucher program. In addition, cutting in Medicaid threatens a calculation in the rural care – also in states that vote for republican.

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Voter can pay next year

Trump and especially his party take a big gamble. According to polls, the law is unpopular for a majority of the American population, which the Republicans could already pay for this at the Congress elections of November 2026, if the entire house and a third of the Senate are chosen again. Democrats then hope to reclaim the house. The second half of his presidency would then be Trump in the White House as a tipsy game.

The Republicans tried to remove the dissatisfaction with right-wing populist hobby horses (extra billions for border control and migrant detention) and a tax discount on tips and overtime. The question in 2026 is whether this is pleased enough as soon as they start to feel the pain.

Voting against this Republican plan required great political courage for Republicans, it turned out in recent weeks. Representatives and senators who released a no-vote or threatened with it could count on the wrath of the president. He could support their challengers in the primaries in 2026. Through Trumps great popularity among the most fanatic part of his electorate, a vote for a Republican politician can come down to political suicide.

Republicans places that electorally exciting districts or states for dilemmas. Senator Thom Tillis van North Carolina proved this after he announced last week to vote “No” because of the cutbacks on Medicaid. He was immediately attacked by Trump and announced a day later next year not to merge for re -election.

His departure can cost the party a possible crucial seat in the Senate next year. But Tillis probably estimated that he would be voted out by support to this unpopular law. In the southern North Carolina, both Democrats and Republicans have a chance to win. For the Republicans, Trumps daughter-in-law and FOX News presenter Lara Trump may be a candidate here.

National debt explodes

Despite the substantial cuts on care and social security, the tax reductions will add around $ 3,000 billion to the national debt. This is now almost 37,000 billion (120 percent of GDP, a doubling compared to the beginning of this century). The law therefore also provides for an increase in the legal debt ceiling with $ 5,000 billion.

The chronic lack of budget discipline in Washington leads among investors growing discomfort about the sustainability of the US national debt. Together with Trumps, taxing policy shouted that in recent weeks in a higher interest rate on bonds with a long duration. In the long run, this can also make loans more expensive for consumers.

The dollar remains the cornerstone of the global financial system, and for the time being, there is still a wide demand for the mint and debt paper. After initial unrest during the first treatment by the house, the capital markets now seem to take into account that this proposal is coming through. The Ministry of Finance solves the falling interest by publishing more shorter current bonds.

What the business life will look forward to is that the senate has deleted ‘section 899’ from the home version. This provision had given the US government the power to impose an extra tax on their investments in the US. The version of the law that the house took also stated that American states are not allowed to implement its own legislation in the coming ten years to curb artificial intelligence. The Senate has deleted that provision, which came out well the tech lobby.

Criticism from Musk

Trumps former ally Elon Musk has again expressed fiercely in recent days about ‘potting’ by ‘political pigs’. The Republican top donorer of the previous elections threatened to the representatives who vote for the plan with political consequences. With his billions of ability, he could support rivals in the Republican primaries next year. Musk also hurt the founding of a third party to break the power of the “Uniparty” of Democrats and Republicans.

The president turned out not to be served by this criticism. He suggested that Musks companies could lose their government assignments, after which he would have to return to his native South Africa. Trump would prefer to have the law on his desk no later than Thursday (Independence Day in the US). But the deadline imposed by him and his party is not rock hard and on Tuesday Trump acknowledged that it can become ‘very difficult’.

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