At the negotiating table on Friday in Alaska, Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably try to achieve with the US President Donald Trump what has not been successful after eleven years of war: getting control over the Ukrainian provinces Donetsk, Loehansk, Cherson and Zaporizja.
Although Russia’s summer offensive against Ukraine already is qualified as ‘The deadliest so far’ and Russia gains ground every week, it would still cost tens of thousands of men by violence of all four intended regions.
A look at the front line
Thanks to one breakthrough during the summer offensive, the Russian armed forces managed to make the start for circling two Ukrainian cities in the Donetsk region. The front now forms an ominous curve northeast of the industrial town of Pokrovsk.
On the east side of that breakthrough, about 50 kilometers from Pokrovsk, the city Kostyantinivka is also becoming increasingly in the corner. While that city was a base and logistics junction for the Ukrainian troops four months ago, the frequent drone and rocket attacks have driven out the joys of daily life from the city.
The spearhead of the Russian summer offensive is here, in the Ukrainian region of Donetsk. Russia has stationed its best drone unit, Rubicon. On the map of the battlefield you can see how the Russian armed forces are slowly but surely gaining ground in the south and east of the front.
The card only tells part of the story. Due to the massive deployment of all kinds of drones, soldiers are now getting risky from the front. The result: “An ever further dilution of the concept of” front line “”. Instead, a “gray zone” has emerged between the two sides, “who becomes wider and more fatal every month,” writes The Kyiv Independentwho was on site this summer.
The drone deployment has greatly changed combat dynamics, says a source at the Ukrainian army that is fighting in Donetsk NRC. The Russians are now attacking in very small groups of two or three people with the support of drones. Because of the summer they can hide between vegetation.
As soon as the Ukrainians try to stop such an attack, they are discovered by the Ruissian drones and the Ukrainian position will be under fire, according to the source. Generally describe the contacts of NRC The position on the front as ‘very difficult’.
But it remains important to mention that the Russian terrain gain is mainly booked in the non-strengthened area. After crossing the important highway N-23 (or T-0504) between Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka, in May this year, the logistics for Ukraine is more difficult. Yet Ukraine is generally much able to defend cities much better than countryside – buildings offer coverage for the troops. The Battle of Pokrovsk itself has been going on for more than a year. The citizens were already evacuated last summer.
In the past few weeks, Russia would have conquered Chasiv Jar – a town with a population of around 12,000 for which the falls of Bachmoet in the spring of 2023 have been aimed at. Ukraine still denies the fall of the entire city, but it is clear that Russia has fought forward from street to street in the last eighteen months.
It is obvious that the Russian leader will try to avoid these costs at the negotiating table.
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For what it is worth: The Economist Calculated last month that every conquered 0.038 square kilometers, Russia costs one soldier life. That at this speed it would still need 89 years for the very Ukraine solditory. For the four provinces that are already partly occupied, it would still be necessary until 2029. However, the frontlin movements are not linear and crew shortages would in the long term play more and more troubles.
After fragments of possible Russian proposals for the distribution of Ukraine passed by in the past few days, the European allies came up with their own proposal on Saturday: first a completely cease-fire, then negotiating the distribution of area. The joint statement, which was also signed by Prime Minister Schoof, stated that “the current front line must be the starting point for the negotiations”. In addition: “We continue to stick to the principle that international boundaries should not be changed by violence.”