Hans van Koningsbrugge, professor of Russian History and Politics at the University of Groningen, gives his commentary on the war in Ukraine every Saturday. Episode 102 today.
Immediately after the advance of Wagner’s troops on Moscow on June 24, I already said that Putin has chosen and Prigozhin cannot survive. The Wagner boss then punched a hole in the apparently invulnerable armor around Putin. And the latter could not resist Prigozhin’s essential misstep – the open expression of disloyalty. Besides, Putin is hateful, forgets nothing and forgives even less.”
Prigozhin is a little lulled to sleep
“There are reasons why Prigozhin is only now dead. There will be elections next year and it is rumored that Prigozhin wanted to participate. Well, then the non-Russian outcome would have become unpredictable. After all, the man was still very popular at the end of June, with the population and the army. He was cheered in Rostow on the day of the march on Moscow. That euphoria around him had to die down a bit. In addition, the average Russian gradually trusted Prigozhin less because he changed his mind and turned around just before Moscow. Furthermore, an investigation was first carried out into who all were involved in his coup attempt. And Prigozhin is a little lulled to sleep. He could still travel half the world, lest he become too suspicious. Although I cannot imagine that Prigozhin did not take this scenario into account.”
For a long time Putin did not mention Prigozhin’s name, not even on June 24 in his live speech to the people. He then spoke of a traitor. But now Putin has to do that to give the impression that he is not behind that plane crash. Gute Miene machen zum bosen Spiel. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin just shows up at Prigozhin’s funeral.”
‘Today he and tomorrow me’
In the short term, Putin’s position has strengthened now that Prigozhin is off the scene. What happened to Prigozhin is a clear message to everyone, within the Russian military and the elite in Russia. This is your fate if you are not loyal to Putin or critical of what they do and want in the Kremlin. But ruling like this won’t win hearts, of course. It’s more like ‘he today and me tomorrow’, if you’re not careful. After all, dozens of critical people from the elite and the military have inexplicably fallen out of windows, succumbed to food poisoning or just suddenly suffered a heart attack.”
“In the longer term, Putin’s position will weaken. Because by cleaning up his opponents, he does not take away the negative feelings that do exist in Russia. He does not solve the problem – and that is that the war is not going on – with this. In addition, his best general Sergei Surovikin, the butcher of Aleppo, is under house arrest after criticizing the Kremlin, Colonel Igor Girkin, who led the annexation of Crimea in 2014, is wasting in a cell and the most energetic army leader, Prigozhin , now dead. Putin has very little up his sleeve, especially if you put these three important assets aside. And that is not good for morale in Russia, especially in the army.”
Speaking of soldiers. The Wagner army in Africa may still exist, that in Russia no longer after what happened to Prigozhin. For Putin, the survival of Wagner Russia is like sleeping with a rattlesnake on your pillow.”