The US cruise company is enjoying strong demand. Management wants to ensure continuing growth by commissioning further ships.
In recent years, consumers’ expenditure has increased significantly. The cruise industry in particular has benefited from this and is still doing it, especially one of the industry sizes, the US group Royal Caribbean Cruises. Therefore, the stock is in rally mode and always reaches new record highs, while the half-year numbers on July 29 are getting closer.
Royal Caribbean is currently operating a fleet of 67 ships and some resorts such as the “Perfect Day at Cococay” on the Bahamas and several “Royal Beach Club” hotels.
In the first quarter, sales rose by 7.3 percent to $ 4.0 billion. The group benefited as well as the fact that the passengers had spent more money on the ship and for excursions. At the same time, fuel prices had dropped significantly.
Therefore, adjusted profit before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA) has climbed by 19.4 percent to $ 1.4 billion. The margin has improved a lot from 31.5 to 35.1 percent.
In addition, adjusted profit has been shot by 53 percent per share to $ 2.71.
Forecast
CEO Jason Liberty was therefore very satisfied with the number template on April 29, especially since the bookings had reached a record in the first quarter. He made a gratifying forecast for the second quarter and increased it for the year as a whole.
According to this, the capacities are to be increased by 5.8 percent in the second quarter because the ships should be a little less in the dry dock, while the ship “Utopia of the Seas” should (and has now completed) for the first year since commissioning in July 2024).
The adjusted profit should achieve $ 4.00 to 4.10 per share. The center of the range means a jump by 26 percent.
In addition, Liberty screwed up the forecast for the adjusted profit per share for the overall year, to $ 14.55 to $ 15.55 compared to the previously planned $ 14.35 to $ 14.65. The center of the range means growth of an impressive 28 percent and was far above the estimates of the analysts of $ 14.78.
The CEO also wants to put several new ships into operation in this and the next few years in order to ensure that continued growth. In August 2025, the “Star of the Seas” should break up for its maiden voyage from Port Canaveral.
In addition, the “Celebrity Xcel” is to set sail in November 2025 and begin its Caribbean season. Ultimately, the resort “Royal Beach Club Paradise Island” is to be opened on the Bahamas on Paradise Island in Nassau in December 2025.
In the process, the investments in 2025 should amount to a total of around $ 5 billion, of which $ 3.4 billion should flow into new ships.
The commissioning of new ships or resorts for simultaneous price increases should inevitably ensure significantly increasing results at Royal Caribbean in the next quarters and years.
This is how the estimates look
Analysts forecast an increase in sales by 9.4 percent to $ 18.0 billion for 2025. In 2026 it should also go up to $ 19.8 billion.
The adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase $ 6.8 billion in 2025 in 2025, followed by $ 7.6 billion from $ 11.3 percent for $ 2026.
In addition, adjusted profit before interest and taxes (EBIT) is expected to climb 21.3 percent to $ 5.0 billion in 2025, for 2026 an increase of $ 12 percent is predicted to $ 5.6 billion. The margin would initially improve from 24.9 to 27.6 percent that it would still be available to 28.3 percent in 2026.
What’s next with the stock?
In the course of the record trip, the stock market value rose to $ 95.1 billion. Including the – according to my calculations – net blushing of $ 19.0 billion, the Enterprise Value is $ 114.1 billion.
This corresponds to the 20.4 times the EBIT predicted by analysts for 2026. The high rating clearly shows the strong growth in the stock.
And the 2026 KGV is 19.8.
Despite the high rating, the Royal Caribbean Cruises stock record should continue, because investors should continue to rely on strong sales growth and a significant impression of margins.
BNP Paribas offers the share of Royal Caribbean Energy (886286) Mini futures and other products.