COLOGNY (dpa-AFX) – According to decision-makers worldwide, the risk of a geoeconomic confrontation has increased significantly. In the World Economic Forum (WEF) Foundation’s report on global risks, the topic is by far the top priority this year.
According to the WEF definition, “geoeconomic confrontation” means the “use of economic levers by global or regional powers to reshape economic interactions between nations.”
18 percent of a good 1,300 experts from companies, science, government, international organizations and civil society see such a confrontation as the greatest risk of a global crisis this year, as the report shows. It appears a few days before the traditional WEF annual meeting in Davos (January 19-23), at which US President Donald Trump has confirmed his participation.
In Germany, a separate survey conducted among managers in individual countries cited “negative impacts of artificial intelligence technologies” as the biggest risk. A year ago, the top priority was a shortage of work and skilled workers.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi emphasizes that the report is not a forecast but a risk assessment. The problems have not yet occurred. What matters now is what decisions managers make. “There is certainly still time to act.”
What geoeconomic confrontation means
The WEF does not mention President Donald Trump’s US policy by name. But the continuation of the definition sounds like a description of American policy: “Restriction of goods, knowledge, services or technologies with the aim of building self-sufficiency, limiting geopolitical rivals and/or consolidating spheres of influence. These include, but are not limited to: currency measures, investment controls, sanctions, government aid and subsidies, and trade controls.”
However, Zahidi emphasized at a press conference that not just one or two countries are moving in this direction, but a general trend can be observed. Managers would have to ask themselves whether, in the event of a global crisis, they could still rely on global cooperation like in the financial crisis of 2007/2008. When economic policy instruments become weapons instead of means of cooperation, the risks increase.
Extreme weather is the biggest long-term risk
Those surveyed in August and September 2025 cited state conflicts as the second most likely risk that could trigger a global crisis, followed by extreme weather. A year ago the order was different: state conflicts before extreme weather and geoeconomic confrontation.
Even with a view to the next two years, the topic remains the one with the greatest potential for crisis: geoeconomic confrontation has moved from ninth to first place compared to the survey a year earlier. Risks such as an economic downturn, inflation, the bursting of asset bubbles and the impairment of critical infrastructure are considered significantly higher. Extreme weather and the loss of biodiversity are considered the greatest risks over a ten-year period.
Davos without Schwab
In a world in which powers are trying to secure their spheres of influence, the spirit of dialogue is essential, says WEF boss Børge Brende. The WEF meeting in Davos also serves this purpose. For decades, around 3,000 leaders from business, politics and society have met there once a year to discuss current topics. It is the first forum after the involuntary resignation of WEF founder Klaus Schwab./oe/DP/mis