MAINZ (dpa-AFX) – Change of power in Rhineland-Palatinate: In the state elections, after almost 35 years, the Christian Democrats clearly relegated the ruling Social Democrats to second place. After the fiasco, debates about direction and personnel are now breaking out in the SPD – and are becoming a burden for the black-red coalition in the federal government. In Mainz, CDU lead candidate Gordon Schnieder is likely to become the new Prime Minister, probably at the head of a coalition with the SPD.
According to projections by ARD and ZDF, the AfD can more than double its share of the vote compared to the last election in 2021
– it is their best result in a West German state. The
Greens lose easily. The FDP, previously part of the traffic light government in the country, is thrown out of parliament. The Free Voters also miss out on returning to the state parliament, and the Left also fails.
Historic low for SPD
According to the projections (as of 10 p.m.), the CDU has increased to 31.0 percent (27.7 percent) compared to the last election. The SPD fell to 25.9 percent (2021: 35.7) – a historic low for the traditional party in state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate. The AfD jumps to 19.5 percent (8.3) – its record high in state elections on the Rhine and Moselle.
The Greens slipped to 7.9 percent of the vote (9.3). The Free Voters only achieved 4.2 percent (5.4), the Left, which has never been represented in the Mainz state parliament, 4.4 percent (2.5). Both parties failed at the five percent hurdle. At 2.1 percent, the FDP is even more below the mark and has to leave the state parliament after ten years – it now sits in parliament in six federal states and in the government only in Saxony-Anhalt.
Almost three million citizens were called to vote. According to projections, voter turnout was 698.6 to 69.5 percent (2021: 64.3).
A coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP has been governing the country with its four million inhabitants for ten years. Now everything boils down to a grand coalition under Schnieder: other alliances are either mathematically or – in the case of the AfD – politically excluded.
According to the projections, the CDU will receive 39 seats in the state parliament (2021: 31), the SPD 32 (39). Together they would have a two-thirds majority. The Greens have 10 mandates (10), the AfD 24 (9).
“35 years are over!”
Schnieder shouted to thunderous applause from his supporters: “The CDU Rhineland-Palatinate is back!” Chants began, such as “35 years are over!” For so long, the CDU was relegated to the opposition in Helmut Kohl’s home country.
The 50-year-old financial economist Schnieder leads it as party and parliamentary group leader. The father of three children scored points in the rural country as a down-to-earth man from a village in the Vulkaneifel. His older brother Patrick (also CDU) is Federal Minister of Transport.
Prime Minister Schweitzer stood for the vote for the first time, but was unable to benefit from the official bonus. The 52-year-old took over the office in 2024 from the popular Malu Dreyer, who had achieved above-average results for many years and resigned for health reasons. After the election, Schweitzer again ruled out joining a CDU-led state government as a minister.
Things are getting even more uncomfortable for the black and red coalition
The election was the second in two weeks after Baden-Württemberg. With the result, the CDU saved the start of the 2026 election year after its defeat there. CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn wrote on X that the end of the last traffic light government would strengthen the federal coalition. “Better education, more security, a strong industry and stable conditions – that’s what the majority of voters want from the CDU/CSU and the SPD. Finding compromises in the middle is now the common task.”
For the SPD, the renewed defeat is a fiasco. In the federal party, this could give a boost to all those on the left wing who would like the chairmen, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, to take a more confrontational course towards their coalition partner Union.
“Dare to flee forward”
Both are now preparing for internal course debates. “We have to talk very clearly in the committees in the next few days about whether the path that we, Lars Klingbeil and I, have taken is the right one and whether we will continue on it,” said Bas. The new accents have not yet been sufficiently received by people. Klingbeil added: “I know that with this result there will be personnel debates and we will have to have them in the party executive committee, in the presidium, in the parliamentary group.” At the same time, he announced that he wanted to “lead the reform debate from the front” in the federal government.
General Secretary Tim Klüssendorf announced a stronger fight for redistribution. “Of course those at the top also have to contribute something, and that is also the point we will make,” he said. “We have to dare to flee forward.”
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann, however, spoke of a tailwind for the Union and warned: “We have to start saving.” There is therefore likely to be a crunch in the coalition – especially before sensitive discussions about essential social reforms in health insurance, care and pensions. The Union and the SPD want to reach an agreement on the projects by the end of the year. In between there are elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in September, in which the AfD could become by far the strongest force.
AfD defies allegations of affair
In Rhineland-Palatinate, as in Baden-Württemberg, the AfD celebrated itself as the actual election winner. She scores despite the nepotism affair, in which Rhineland-Palatinate MPs also accommodated relatives or friends in the offices of other MPs. Party leader Timo Chrupalla announced: “We will slap the black and red on the fingers.”/and/DP/zb
