(new: reactions and new projections)
MAINZ (dpa-AFX) – Clear victory for the CDU, fiasco for the SPD: The Christian Democrats are ahead in the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate. For the first time in almost 35 years, the party is now likely to appoint its top candidate Gordon Schnieder as Prime Minister. According to projections by ARD and ZDF, incumbent Alexander Schweitzer’s Social Democrats are suffering heavy losses, but could become junior partners in the future state government.
The AfD can more than double its share of the vote compared to the last election in 2021 – it is its best result in a western German state. The Greens lose easily. The Free Voters miss re-entry into the state parliament, the Left also fails. The FDP, previously part of the traffic light government in the country, is also being thrown out of parliament.
Historic low for SPD
According to the projections (around 7:20 p.m.), the CDU will increase to 30.8 to 30.9 percent (27.7 percent) compared to the last election in 2021. The SPD fell to 25.9 to 26.0 percent (2021: 35.7) – a historic low for the traditional party in state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate. The AfD jumps to 19.9 to 20.1 percent (8.3) – its record in state elections on the Rhine and Moselle.
The Greens lose slightly to 8.0 to 8.1 percent of the vote (9.3). The Free Voters only achieved 3.9 to 4.2 percent (5.4), the Left, which has never been represented in the Mainz state parliament, 4.2 to 4.4 percent (2.5). Both parties failed at the five percent hurdle. At 2.0 to 2.2 percent, the FDP is even more below the mark and has to leave the state parliament after ten years – it now sits in parliament in six federal states and only in the government in Saxony-Anhalt.
Almost three million citizens were called to vote. According to projections, voter turnout was 69.3 to 69.5 percent (2021: 64.3).
The SPD’s race to catch up is not enough
A coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP has been governing the country with its four million inhabitants for ten years. The CDU had been clearly leading in surveys for months, but the SPD has been catching up since the beginning of the year
– but not enough. Now everything is coming down to a grand coalition
Schnieder adds: Other alliances are either mathematically or – in the case of the AfD – politically excluded.
According to the projections, the CDU will receive 36 or 37 seats in the state parliament (2021: 31), the SPD 31 (39). Together they would probably have a two-thirds majority (67 of the 101 seats). The Greens have 9 or 10 mandates (10), the AfD 24 (9).
Schnieder shouted to thunderous applause from his supporters: “The CDU Rhineland-Palatinate is back!” Chants began, such as “35 years are over!” For so long, the CDU was relegated to the opposition in Helmut Kohl’s home country.
The 50-year-old financial economist Schnieder leads it as party and parliamentary group leader. The father of three children scored points in the rural country as a down-to-earth man from a village in the Vulkaneifel. His older brother Patrick (also CDU) is Federal Minister of Transport.
Prime Minister Schweitzer faced the vote for the first time. The 52-year-old took over the office in 2024 from the popular Malu Dreyer, who had achieved above-average results for many years and resigned for health reasons. Schweitzer has ruled out joining a CDU-led state government as a minister.
Things are getting even more uncomfortable for the black and red coalition
With the result, the CDU saved the start of the 2026 election year after its defeat in Baden-Württemberg. For the SPD, the renewed defeat is a fiasco. In the federal party, this could give a boost to all those on the left wing who would like the chairmen, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, to take a more confrontational course towards their coalition partner Union.
Both are now preparing for internal course debates. “We have to talk very clearly in the committees in the next few days about whether the path that we, Lars Klingbeil and I, have taken is the right one and whether we will continue on it,” said Bas. The new accents have not yet been sufficiently received by people. Klingbeil added: “I know that with this result there will be personnel debates and we will have to have them in the party executive committee, in the presidium, in the parliamentary group.” At the same time, he announced that he wanted to “lead the reform debate from the front” in the federal government.
Secretary General Tim Klüssendorf explained that more profile and recognizability are now required. “We have to dare to flee forward.”
There is therefore likely to be a crunch in the coalition – especially before sensitive discussions about essential social reforms in health insurance, care and pensions. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann warned: “We have to start saving.” The Union and the SPD want to reach an agreement on the projects by the end of the year. In between there are elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in September, in which the AfD could become by far the strongest force.
AfD defies allegations of affair
In Rhineland-Palatinate, as in Baden-Württemberg, the AfD is likely to celebrate itself as the actual election winner. The right-wing populists are scoring despite the nepotism affair, in which Rhineland-Palatinate MPs also accommodated relatives or friends in the offices of other MPs. Party leader Timo Chrupalla said: “We will give black and red a pat on the back.”
Election campaign controversial, but factual
The election campaign was controversial, but objective – both opponents were aware that, depending on the election outcome, they would have to govern with the other side. The main topics were education and climate policy./and/DP/nas
