With Jannik out of the picture and Alcaraz out for some time, the prediction table is out of order in Paris
Having removed the number 1 favorite from contention, there is now no favorite. Simple, but that’s how it is. After the sad exit of Jannik Sinner, the cold reading of the scoreboard would lead us to assign the honor and the burden to Alexander Zverev, second seed. But that’s not really the case. We are in the era of the duopoly: Sinner and Alcaraz have divided the last nine Slams. The Majors have basically been their stuff for two and a half years, after Djokovic had won the 2023 US Open: 2 Australian Opens, 1 Wimbledon and 1 US Open for Jannik; 1 Australian Open, 2 Roland Garros, 1 Wimbledon and 1 US Open for Carlos (who had previously already won in London and New York). In general, on the circuit, the Italian and the Spaniard have created a deep gap between themselves and the competition, making the tour quite predictable when both are in action: everyone waiting for a final between the two of them. Not this time. Via Alcaraz since the day before, via Sinner already in the second round. And a very open fight.
front row
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Of course, Zverev, number 3 in the world ranking, legitimately enters the race for this mutilated Roland Garros: at 29 years old, after three Slam finals and the label of splendid loser, he has the wonderful opportunity to finally win a Major. But are we sure that he will manage not to be overwhelmed by the weight of expectations? Certainly, the 2026 scoreboard has dramatically opened. Aspirants are different. His Majesty Novak Djokovic, it goes without saying. The 24-time Slam champion, at the end of an inimitable career, has now concentrated on the Majors, reducing his appearances on the tour. In Melbourne he surprised Sinner and only surrendered to Alcaraz in the final, demonstrating that he can still compete – in concentrated periods – at very high levels. In Paris he triumphed three times (it’s the Slam where he won the least, because there was a certain Rafael Nadal): do you want to see that at 39 years old he manages poker and the 25th Slam title overall?
finalists
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Among the players of the old guard, also watch out for Casper Ruud, who is one of the strongest on clay ever (he has just reiterated this by reaching the final at the Internationals) and who has reached the final twice in Paris, in 2022 and 2023, when he climbed to second place in the rankings (now he is no. 16). Among other things, if Djokovic and Ruud overcome Fonseca and Paul respectively tomorrow, they will already face each other in the round of 16. The archives say that, among the survivors of this main draw, only one other player – apart from Zverev, Djokovic and Ruud – has played in a final at Roland Garros (in 2021): Stefanos Tsitsipas. But today’s one is a very faded stand-in: unlikely, if not impossible, to imagine him among the backup favourites. On the slow, top ten like Auger-Aliassime (n. 6) and De Minaur (n. 7) exclude themselves. Medvedev, who on the eve of the match was seen as one of the potential dangers for Sinner, was even eliminated in the first round, like Fritz and Bublik. The gaze, then, must be directed elsewhere.
Spain-Italy
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One name above all: Rafael Jodar. The rising star of Spanish tennis, 19 years old, is in his first real season on the circuit. He began 2026 at no. 168 in the ranking; then, after having won the title in Marrakech, the semi-final in Barcelona, the quarter-finals in Madrid (with compliments from Sinner) and the quarter-finals in Rome, he rose to 29th place. And in recent days, on his debut at Roland Garros, he has shone with authority: tomorrow, in the third round, he will face the American Alex Michelsen; in the quarterfinals, possibly, there would be Zverev. Francisco Cerundolo, the most popular brother of Jannik’s vigilante, might also have some chance, albeit minimal: 27 years old, n. 26 in the ranking, he is at ease on clay, even if this year he did not shine in the previous tests. Much better is our Flavio Cobolli, who, if he beats Learner Tien, could find the Argentine in the round of 16. Flavio is in the top part of the scoreboard, the one without number 1. At 24 years old, his growth plan now looks to the top ten (he is number 14). In Rome and Hamburg he disappointed; Paris could be the definitive launching pad.
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