German defense stocks are very popular with investment banks. An overview of the current analyst estimates for Rheinmetall, RENK, HENSOLDT and TKMS.
• All defense companies with significant increases in order backlog and sales
• Rheinmetall increased its order backlog to a record level
• Jefferies rates Rheinmetall, RENK and HENSOLDT with buy recommendations
Rheinmetall with the highest potential
In terms of average upside potential, Rheinmetall is ahead of the four defense stocks considered. Based on the year-end closing price of 1,561 euros on December 30, 2025, analysts see the Düsseldorf group’s shares on average around 31 percent above this level in the future. The major Swiss bank UBS set the highest price target at 2,500 euros at the beginning of December 2025. In an analysis from mid-January, JPMorgan sees the share price at 2,250 euros in the future, Berenberg Bank at 2,200 euros. The experts at Deutsche Bank set a price target of 2,100 euros at the beginning of January and Jefferies predicted an increase to 2,150 euros on December 18th. Even Warburg Research’s lowest price target of 1,770 euros is still well above the year-end closing price for 2025 – although below the most recent XETRA closing price of 1,913.50 euros (as of January 15, 2026).
The majority of analysts’ positive assessments are based on strong operational development. As can be seen from a press release dated November 6, 2025, Rheinmetall increased sales by 20 percent to 7.5 billion euros in the first nine months of 2025. The order backlog climbed to a record level of 64 billion euros. For the full year 2025, the group confirmed expected sales growth of 25 to 30 percent with an operating margin of around 15.5 percent. The 2025 annual report will not be published until March 11th.
RENK with a solid growth story
Analysts also see significant upward potential for transmission specialist RENK in 2026. Based on the year-end closing price of 53.62 euros on December 30, 2025, the average price target of the investment banks is around 24.6 percent above this level. Berenberg Bank estimated the highest price target of 76 euros in mid-January 2026. In their analyzes from mid-January and the end of November, JPMorgan and Jefferies are only slightly lower at 75 euros each, while Deutsche Bank valued the share at 72 euros in an analysis in January. The range of estimates ranges from 49.50 euros (Merrill Lynch in March 2025) to the aforementioned 76 euros. The RENK share most recently closed at 60.95 euros (as of January 15, 2026).
An important growth driver is the US business. As the company announced on November 27, 2025, the American subsidiary RENK America recorded incoming orders of more than 500 million US dollars in the current year – a new record. The group also raised its medium-term sales forecast: by 2030, sales are expected to more than double to between 2.8 and 3.2 billion euros, with the share of the defense business increasing to around 90 percent. RENK plans to present the results for the 2025 financial year on March 5, 2026.
HENSOLDT: Solid potential with strong order intake
Based on current analyst studies, the sensor and radar system manufacturer HENSOLDT has an average upside potential of around 29 percent, based on the closing price of 73.25 euros on December 30, 2025. The highest price target is 106 euros, set by Hauck Aufhäuser Lamp as early as June 2025. In a November study, Deutsche Bank expected the share price to rise to 101 euros, while JPMorgan (mid-January 2026), Barclays (end of November 2025) and Jefferies (mid-November 2025) all agree that 90 euros is realistic. The lowest price target comes from Warburg Research, which set it at just 86 euros in mid-November. The HENSOLDT share was last traded on XETRA at 90.00 euros (as of January 15, 2026).
The company’s operational development is also impressive. As can be seen from a press release dated November 7, 2025, HENSOLDT increased order intake to 2.017 billion euros in the first nine months of 2025 (previous year: 1.856 billion euros). The order backlog reached a record level of 7.096 billion euros. Sales grew by more than eleven percent to 1.536 billion euros. The company adjusted its forecast for the full year 2025 upwards and now expects a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6 to 1.9 (previously: 1.2) and sales of around 2,500 million euros. Investors will receive a first insight into whether these goals have been achieved on February 26th, when HENSOLDT publishes the preliminary figures for the 2025 financial year.
TKMS with moderate potential after IPO
At TKMS, the submarine builder thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, the number of published analyst estimates has so far been significantly lower. Only two investment banks have publicly communicated price targets: Deutsche Bank valued the share at 99 euros in mid-January, and Bernstein Research came to 67 euros at the beginning of January. The average upward potential is therefore around 25 percent, measured against the year-end closing price of 66.45 euros on December 30, 2025. The TKMS share most recently closed on XETRA at 91.65 euros (as of January 15, 2026).
TKMS is in a transformation phase after going public in October 2025. As can be seen from a press release dated December 8, 2025, the company increased its order intake sixfold to 8.8 billion euros in the 2024/2025 financial year (balance sheet date: September 30). The order backlog reached a record level of 18.2 billion euros – an increase of 55 percent. Sales grew by nine percent to 2.2 billion euros. The adjusted EBIT margin improved to six percent, and TKMS is aiming for a further increase for the current 2025/2026 financial year.
Industry trends and portfolio considerations
The different business models of the four companies offer investors different access to the defense sector. With its breadth, Rheinmetall covers almost all areas of land defense and is considered an established industry leader. RENK relies on highly specialized drive technology and particularly benefits from the US market. HENSOLDT focuses on sensors and electronics – areas that are becoming increasingly popular Digitalization of the armed forces are becoming more important. TKMS, in turn, serves a niche with high entry barriers and long order times with submarines and naval systems.
The companies’ operating performance reflects the strong demand for defense equipment. All four groups recorded significant increases in order intake and order backlog in the most recent reporting periods. While Rheinmetall, RENK and HENSOLDT have been listed for a long time, TKMS is still in the early phase as an independent listed company. The different growth phases and specializations can play a role in portfolio composition – depending on whether investors want to focus on an established industry leader, a growth stock or a niche specialization.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net
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