Under great time pressure, Europe is urging the USA to improve the plan to end the war in Ukraine in favor of Kiev. Armament stocks in particular reacted sensitively to the peace plans.
Talks began in Geneva in the morning between representatives of Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, the EU, Ukraine and the United States.
US President Donald Trump has given his Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelensky a deadline of Thursday to fundamentally agree to the plan. Ukraine’s supporters reject the plan in its current form. The 28-point document demands major concessions, especially from the country attacked by Russia.
The Russian President Vladimir Putin was obviously happy with the paper. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to clarify that the plan was actually written by the US and is not a Kremlin wish list.
Trump’s change of heart after criticism?
In the face of criticism, Trump indicated that he would give in. When asked by a journalist in Washington whether the peace plan was a final offer, he answered in the negative and added: “We are trying to end the matter one way or another.”
Trump’s line to bring peace in Ukraine therefore remains contradictory. According to information from the Washington Post, the USA combined its ultimatum with the threat of otherwise withdrawing support from Ukraine.
Europe in crisis mode at the G20 summit
The US proposal, for example, stipulates that Ukraine cede previously defended areas to Russia, limit its military capabilities and that NATO declare a renunciation of any expansion.
Russia, on the other hand, would only have to make comparatively small concessions and, among other things, forego state assets frozen in the EU. This would be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
After a crisis meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg, Ukraine’s allies made it clear in a statement that the draft could only be a basis that needed to be worked on.
Merz: No peace possible over Ukraine’s head
After the deliberations, at which Japan and Canada were also represented, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) said: “Wars cannot be ended by great powers over the heads of the countries involved.” There could only be an end to the war if Ukraine and the Europeans agreed.
USA, Europeans and Ukraine are discussing changes
According to German information, the Europeans sent proposals for changes to the USA before the Geneva meeting. Details are not yet known.
First, the Ukrainian and European delegations coordinated in Geneva, as the Ukrainian negotiator Andriy Yermak said. Then there was a meeting with the Americans.
Secretary of State Rubio and President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, traveled to Switzerland on behalf of the USA. Chancellor Friedrich Merz sent Chancellor Advisor Günter Sautter.
“We are very constructive,” said Jermak. “We continue to work together to achieve a sustainable and just peace for Ukraine.”
According to Zelenskyj’s assessment, if Ukraine rejects the plan, it risks losing the USA as a key partner. Without support from the largest military power, which sells weapons to Ukraine and provides data for waging war against Russia, continuing the defensive fight against the invaders would be significantly more difficult.
In any case, after almost four years of the Russian war of aggression, Ukraine is coming under increasing military pressure. Ukrainians are facing a tough winter. Putin, on the other hand, seems to be in no hurry.
Rubio: Peace plan was drawn up by the USA
Statements by Republican Senator Mike Rounds, who said after a phone call with Rubio that the plan had been brought to the attention of the US government, caused irritation. “It’s not our recommendation, it’s not our peace plan,” he said, citing Rubio. Senator Angus King added that the plan was “essentially the Russians’ wish list.”
Rubio later contradicted this on
Vance and Putin are on the same page
Putin believes the 28-point plan is a basis for achieving peace. Russia attacked Ukraine on Putin’s orders on February 24, 2022.
US Vice President JD Vance accused critics of the plan of ignoring the true situation in the war. “Peace is not achieved by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy world,” he wrote on X.
Putin also accuses the Europeans of being ignorant of the situation. They would have no real information about the situation on the battlefield.
Why does this affect the shares of Rheinmetall, HENSOLDT and RENK?
The speculation about a possible ceasefire plan had a significant impact on the prices of leading German defense companies even before the weekend. In XETRA trading, the three German arms stocks were significantly in the red: Rheinmetall’s shares lost 7.18 percent to 1,519.50 euros on Friday, and fell by a further 7.11 percent to 1,503 euros after trading via Tradegate. At HENSOLDT there was a loss of 6.57 percent at 72.50 euros at the end of the XETRA. Here too, over-the-counter sales continued at -4.11 percent to 72.40 euros. The bears also dominate the transmission manufacturer RENK: While the share ultimately fell by 8.36 percent to 50.86 euros in XETRA trading, it fell by a further 6.32 percent to 50.40 euros after the trading session.
These price reactions are related to the possibility of an end to hostilities. However, analysts pointed out that the prospects for peace are currently slim due to little overlap in the ideas of both sides. After initial speculation about talks, David Perry from JPMorgan wrote that the US plan would de facto amount to a victory for Russia, which would only boost European defense spending. Citigroup’s Charles Armitage also suggested that an end to the conflict would simply usher in a period of mutual monitoring, as Russia could be prepared for a potential conflict with Europe within five years.
dpa-AFX / editorial team finanzen.net
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