Recommendations of the Editorial team
Republicans are leaving the House of Representatives in record numbers. On Friday, Rep. Darell Issa (R-Calif.) became the 35th member of the GOP to announce he would not run for Congress again in November. That’s the most Republican defections since at least 1930, surpassing the previous high from the middle of Donald Trump’s first term in 2018, when 34 GOP members opted out of defending their seats. In the fall of that year, Democrats won a 41-seat majority.
The 35 Republican withdrawals do not include Issa’s colleague Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), who announced the same day he would run for re-election – but not as a Republican.
Kiley will instead appear on the ballot as a “No Party Affiliation” candidate, but told reporters that he would continue to work with the GOP if re-elected.
Frustration and withdrawal
“It’s no secret that I have been at times frustrated, at times disgusted, by the extreme partisanship in Congress,” Kiley wrote on
Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah) also announced last week that he would not run for a new term amid an ongoing redistricting dispute in his home state. Both Issa and Owens are victims of an arms race that began last summer when Trump pressured Texas officials to redraw their congressional districts to add five new Republican-leaning seats. California voters responded by approving a plan that could add six Democratic seats. A federal court last month rejected a GOP attempt to block a court-ordered congressional map in Utah, but the party continues to challenge the initiative in other ways.
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who is under pressure, also gave up his re-election hopes last week after the House Ethics Committee announced it would investigate allegations that Gonzales sexually harassed a former aide who later died by self-immolation. (Gonzales has admitted to a relationship with the employee, Regina Santos-Aviles.)
Ambitions and failed plans
At least 19 of the 35 retiring Republicans are leaving Congress to seek other public office, although some of those candidacies have already failed – including Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) bid for governor and Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R-Texas) Senate bid.
The historic number of withdrawals comes at a time when voter approval of Congress’ work is near record lows. In November, approval fell to 14 percent – five points away from the all-time low of nine percent recorded in 2013. Added to this is a rising disapproval rate for Trump himself – which, according to a New York Times average, is around 56 percent – and no sign from the Republican majority of wanting to act as a check on the president’s power.
A number of senior Democrats have also announced their retirement, including Reps. Steny Hoyer (86), Nancy Pelosi (85) and Jerry Nadler (78). Their withdrawals come amid growing pressure from the Democratic base for older lawmakers to make way after a series of deaths of Democratic incumbents. Three Democratic members have died in office in this congressional session alone. (The Republicans currently have 218 seats in the House of Representatives, the Democrats 214, three seats are vacant.)
Historically few candidacies
As of press time, only 374 House members were seeking re-election – the lowest number in the 21st century and the second lowest since 1946. (The only year with fewer incumbents running was 1992, when Democrats won an 82-seat majority.) Democrats have outperformed in elections last year, and the party currently holds a 14-point lead over the GOP in voter mobilization.
All of this makes the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) optimistic about the fall. “Republicans know they will lose in November,” DCCC spokesman Justin Chermol tells Rolling Stone. “By resigning now, they will avoid the inevitable humiliation of losing their seats – and their committee chairs. Bon voyage.”
