Ray Dalio raises the alarm: The excessive US state debt could trigger an economic “heart attack”. However, a look into the past offers a solution.
• USA before economic heart attack?
• focus on debt crisis
• Review of the 90s should illustrate a solution approach
Absent crisis as an economic “heart attack”
In an interview with FOX Business, Starinvestor Ray Dalio urgently warns of the consequences of the excessive public debt in the United States. With currently over $ 36 trillion and annual deficits of around 6.2 percent of gross domestic product, he sees the US economy in dangerous imbalance. If there is no course correction, this can lead to an “economic heart attack” within the next three years, Dalio also said in a contribution on the platform X.
The basic picture has not Changed – If the Us Doesn’t Cut the Deficit to 3% of the Gdp, and Son, We Risk Facing an Economic Heart Attack in The Next Three Years.
The Good News is that these cuts are possible. If we change spending and income (tax return) by 4% while the … pic.twitter.com/s80vayii2v
– Ray Dalio (@raydalio) July 23, 2025
“The basic picture has not changed: If the United States does not succeed in reducing the deficit to three percent of GDP, soon, we will risk an economic heart attack in the next three years,” said the Starinvestor.
He assumes that the deficits could increase to 7.3 percent of GDP by 2055 – especially because of increasing expenses for social security, medicar and rising interest burden. Already today the debt costs threatened to suppress other household areas. Dalio warns of a cycle of growing debts and rising interest rates, which could ultimately endanger trust in US state bonds.
Review of the 1990s
Despite his dark assessment, Dalio still sees hope – if traded in time. As a model, he mentions the phase between 1991 and 1998, in which cross -party reforms enabled a stable budget balance. A similar combination of expenses and tax increases is still feasible today. “We know that such a balance is possible because it existed between 1991 and 1998,” said Dalio. Specifically, he proposes to reduce both expenditure and income by four percent as long as the economy is still stable. This could reduce interest rates and the fiscal location to improve significantly.
However, Dalio sees the political realities critically: “I fear that we will probably not make these necessary cuts for political reasons,” he explains. However, this increases the risk that the USA will get into a serious offer of demand and demand due to growing interest obligations-with serious consequences for creditworthiness and economic stability.
Editor finance.net